Massey Douglas S, Durand Jorge, Pren Karen A
Princeton University.
University of Guadalajara.
Migr Int. 2020;11. doi: 10.33679/rmi.v1i1.2282. Epub 2020 Aug 1.
We analyze the effect of homicide in Mexico on patterns and processes of internal and international migration. Linking municipal-level homicide rates from 1990 through 2018 with data from the Mexican Migration Project, we estimate a series of multinomial discrete time event history models to assess the effect that exposure to lethal violence has on the likelihood of migration within Mexico and to the United States without documents. Statistical estimates indicate that the homicide rate negatively predicts the likelihood of taking a first undocumented trip to the United States but positively predicts the likelihood of taking a first trip within Mexico. Among those undocumented migrants who have already taken a first U.S. trip, lethal violence also negatively predicts the likelihood of taking a second undocumented trip. Among returned internal migrants whose first trip was to a Mexican destination, the odds of taking a first U.S. trip were also negatively predicted by the municipal homicide rate. We conclude that rising violence in Mexico is not a significant driver of undocumented migration to the United States. Instead it contributes to the decline in undocumented out-migration observed since 2007, in combination with the rising age of those at risk of migration and the growing access of Mexicans to legal entry visas.
我们分析了墨西哥的凶杀案对国内和国际移民模式及过程的影响。将1990年至2018年的市级凶杀案发生率与墨西哥移民项目的数据相联系，我们估计了一系列多项离散时间事件史模型，以评估接触致命暴力对在墨西哥境内以及无证前往美国移民可能性的影响。统计估计表明，凶杀案发生率对首次无证前往美国的可能性具有负面预测作用，但对首次在墨西哥境内出行的可能性具有正面预测作用。在那些已经首次前往美国的无证移民中，致命暴力对再次无证前往美国的可能性也具有负面预测作用。在首次前往墨西哥境内目的地的回流国内移民中，市级凶杀案发生率对首次前往美国的几率同样具有负面预测作用。我们得出结论，墨西哥暴力事件的增加并非无证移民前往美国的重要驱动因素。相反，它与有移民风险人群年龄的增长以及墨西哥人获得合法入境签证机会的增加共同导致了自2007年以来观察到的无证移民外流的减少。
