Estimation of Risk of Death Attributable to Acute Gastroenteritis Not Caused by Infection Among Hospitalized Adults in England.

INTRODUCTION

The role of an infectious agent may be unclear as the primary cause of death. Furthermore, many infections go undiagnosed, particularly if identification does not affect treatment. To circumvent the limitations of individual death attribution, a population-level assessment of the role of infectious acute gastroenteritis (AGE) was performed.

METHODS

Using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and the Office for National Statistics - Mortality Statistics, covering 16 million patients in the UK, we conducted a matched case-control study to estimate the odds of having AGE not due to infection (CDI) diagnosed in the month before death among hospitalized adults in England. To estimate the number of deaths, we first estimated the attributable fraction (AF). The population attributable fraction (PAF) was then derived by multiplying AF with the proportion of AGE hospitalizations among all hospitalizations. Finally, by multiplying the PAF with the number of deaths, the number of deaths attributable to AGE not caused by CDI among hospitalized patients was estimated.

RESULTS

The odds of having AGE not caused by CDI was 4.6 times higher among fatal compared to non-fatal hospitalizations. The overall PAF was 1.7% for AGE not caused by CDI. The overall number of deaths attributable to AGE not caused by CDI among adults in England is estimated to be 5000 annually.

DISCUSSION

Approximately 5000 of the 276,000 deaths that occur annually among hospitalized adults in England can be attributed to AGE not caused by CDI, which is higher than previously estimated.