Department of Psychology, York Saint John University, York, YO31 7EX, UK.
Psychology, Leeds Trinity University, Leeds, LS18 5HD, UK.
Psychon Bull Rev. 2021 Oct;28(5):1514-1537. doi: 10.3758/s13423-021-01880-6.
Mental simulation of future scenarios is hypothesized to affect future behavior, but a large and inconsistent literature means it is unclear whether, and under what conditions, mental simulation can change people's behavior. A meta-analysis was conducted to synthesize the effects of mental simulation on behavior and examine under what conditions mental simulation works best. An inclusive systematic database search identified 123 (N = 5,685) effect sizes comparing mental simulation to a control group. After applying a multilevel random effects model, a statistically-reliable positive effect of Hedges' g = 0.49, 95% CI [0.37; 0.62] was found, which was significantly different than zero. Using a taxonomy to identify different subtypes of mental simulation (along two dimensions, class [process, performance, outcome] and purpose [whether an inferior, standard, superior version of that behavior is simulated]), it was found that superior simulations garnered more reliable beneficial effects than inferior simulations. These findings have implications for integrating theories of how mental simulations change behavior, how mental simulations are classified, and may help guide professionals seeking evidence-based and cost-effective methods of changing behavior.
未来情景的心理模拟被假设会影响未来的行为，但大量且不一致的文献意味着，心理模拟是否以及在什么条件下可以改变人们的行为还不清楚。本文进行了一项荟萃分析，以综合心理模拟对行为的影响，并研究心理模拟在什么条件下效果最佳。一个包容性的系统数据库搜索确定了 123 项（N = 5685）比较心理模拟与对照组的效应量。在应用多层次随机效应模型后，发现 Hedges'g = 0.49（95%置信区间 [0.37；0.62]）的统计上可靠的正效应，与零显著不同。使用分类法识别心理模拟的不同亚型（沿着两个维度，即类别[过程、绩效、结果]和目的[是否模拟行为的劣等、标准、优等版本]），发现优等模拟比劣等模拟产生更可靠的有益效果。这些发现对整合心理模拟如何改变行为的理论、心理模拟的分类以及帮助指导寻求基于证据和具有成本效益的行为改变方法的专业人员具有重要意义。
