DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Department of Global Health, Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa.
PLoS One. 2021 May 6;16(5):e0250086. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250086. eCollection 2021.
Applied epidemiological models are used in predicting future trends of diseases, for the basic understanding of disease and health dynamics, and to improve the measurement of health indicators. Mapping the research outputs of epidemiological modelling studies concerned with transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and public health interventions in Africa will help to identify the areas with substantial levels of research activities, areas with gaps, and research output trends.
A scoping review of applied epidemiological models of infectious disease studies that involved first or last authors affiliated to African institutions was conducted. Eligible studies were those concerned with the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and public health interventions. The review was consistent with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) extension for scoping reviews. Four electronic databases were searched for peer-reviewed publications up to the end of April 2020.
Of the 5927 publications identified, 181 met the inclusion criteria. The review identified 143 publications with first authors having an African institutional affiliation (AIA), while 81 had both first and last authors with an AIA. The publication authors were found to be predominantly affiliated with institutions based in South Africa and Kenya. Furthermore, human immunodeficiency virus, malaria, tuberculosis, and Ebola virus disease were found to be the most researched infectious diseases. There has been a gradual increase in research productivity across Africa especially in the last ten years, with several collaborative efforts spread both within and beyond Africa.
Research productivity in applied epidemiological modelling studies of infectious diseases may have increased, but there remains an under-representation of African researchers as leading authors. The study findings indicate a need for the development of research capacity through supporting existing institutions in Africa and promoting research funding that will address local health priorities.
应用流行病学模型用于预测疾病的未来趋势，以基本了解疾病和健康动态，并改进健康指标的衡量。绘制与传染病传播动态和非洲公共卫生干预相关的应用流行病学建模研究的研究成果图，有助于确定具有大量研究活动的领域、存在差距的领域以及研究成果趋势。
对涉及隶属非洲机构的第一作者或最后作者的传染病应用流行病学模型研究进行了范围界定审查。合格的研究涉及传染病传播动态和公共卫生干预。该审查符合系统评价和荟萃分析的首选报告项目（PRISMA）扩展范围审查。截至 2020 年 4 月底，对四个电子数据库进行了同行评审出版物的搜索。
在确定的 5927 项出版物中，有 181 项符合纳入标准。该审查确定了 143 项具有第一作者隶属非洲机构（AIA）的出版物，而 81 项具有第一作者和最后作者隶属 AIA。研究发现，出版物作者主要隶属于南非和肯尼亚的机构。此外，艾滋病毒、疟疾、结核病和埃博拉病毒病被认为是研究最多的传染病。特别是在过去十年中，非洲的研究生产力逐渐提高，并且在非洲内部和外部都有许多合作努力。
传染病应用流行病学建模研究的研究生产力可能有所提高，但作为主要作者的非洲研究人员仍然代表性不足。研究结果表明，需要通过支持非洲现有的机构和促进解决当地卫生重点的研究资金来发展研究能力。
