McGraw Amanda M, Moen Ron A, Cornicelli Louis, Carstensen Michelle, St-Louis Véronique
Forest Economics and Ecology Section, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, 107 Sutliff Ave., Rhinelander, Wisconsin 54501, USA.
Center for Water and the Environment, University of Minnesota, Duluth, 1049 University Dr., Duluth, Minnesota 55811, USA.
J Wildl Dis. 2021 Jul 1;57(3):569-578. doi: 10.7589/JWD-D-20-00060.
Despite the importance of the Parelaphostrongylus tenuis infection for moose (Alces alces) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) management, only one peer-reviewed study has evaluated the relationship between deer and moose densities and the potential for parasite-mediated competition between the species. Using polynomial-regression modeling, that study identified a deer-density threshold above which moose populations declined; however, the nature of the data and apparent outliers suggests the approach used to develop that threshold may not have been appropriate. We used the data from the original study to test whether alternative models, including linear models and negative binomial models would be less sensitive to outliers and could better explain that relationship. We found no evidence that moose density decreases as deer density increases. We concluded that, although the proposed moose-deer-P. tenuis relationship could be partially density dependent, additional factors, such as frequency dependence of disease transmission, gastropod abundance, and shared use of resources by moose and deer should also be considered.
尽管细颈囊尾蚴感染对于驼鹿（美洲驼鹿）和白尾鹿（弗吉尼亚鹿）的管理至关重要，但仅有一项经过同行评审的研究评估了鹿和驼鹿密度之间的关系以及物种间寄生虫介导竞争的可能性。该研究使用多项式回归模型确定了一个鹿密度阈值，高于此阈值驼鹿种群数量会下降；然而，数据的性质和明显的异常值表明用于确定该阈值的方法可能并不合适。我们利用原始研究的数据来测试替代模型，包括线性模型和负二项式模型是否对异常值不太敏感，并且能否更好地解释这种关系。我们没有发现证据表明驼鹿密度会随着鹿密度的增加而降低。我们得出结论，尽管所提出的驼鹿 - 鹿 - 细颈囊尾蚴关系可能部分依赖于密度，但还应考虑其他因素，如疾病传播的频率依赖性、腹足类动物的丰度以及驼鹿和鹿对资源的共享利用。
