Hurley S F, McNeil J J
Cancer Epidemiology Centre, Anti-Cancer Council of Victoria, Carlton South.
Clin Pharmacokinet. 1988 May;14(5):311-20. doi: 10.2165/00003088-198814050-00003.
We compared a least squares regression method, used prospectively to individualise the intravenous aminophylline and oral theophylline dosage of 48 patients, with 3 other pharmacokinetic methods - Chiou's, the steady-state clearance and the Bayesian - used retrospectively to analyse the same patient data. Methods were compared on the basis of the similarity of their parameter estimates and the accuracy with which serum concentrations during subsequent intravenous and oral therapy could be forecast, assuming each method's parameter estimates. The least squares and Bayesian programs were able to fit data from all but 4 and 2 patients, respectively. Mean absolute prediction errors were of the order of 20% for serum concentrations during intravenous therapy, and of the order of 40% for serum concentrations during oral therapy. The accuracy of the least squares, Bayesian and steady-state clearance methods were similar, but the accuracy of Chiou's method was comparable only when the 2 serum concentrations needed for the method were measured between 11 and 17 hours apart; an interval which corresponds to the 1.0 to 1.5 half-lives previously suggested as desirable for implementation of the Chiou method.
我们前瞻性地使用最小二乘回归法对48例患者的静脉注射氨茶碱和口服茶碱剂量进行个体化，并与其他3种药代动力学方法——邱氏法、稳态清除率法和贝叶斯法进行比较，这3种方法是对相同患者数据进行回顾性分析。比较方法基于其参数估计的相似性以及在假设每种方法参数估计的情况下，预测后续静脉和口服治疗期间血清浓度的准确性。最小二乘法和贝叶斯程序分别能够拟合除4例和2例患者之外的所有患者数据。静脉治疗期间血清浓度的平均绝对预测误差约为20%，口服治疗期间血清浓度的平均绝对预测误差约为40%。最小二乘法、贝叶斯法和稳态清除率法的准确性相似，但仅当邱氏法所需的两个血清浓度在间隔11至17小时测量时，邱氏法的准确性才相当；该时间间隔对应于先前建议实施邱氏法时理想的1.0至1.5个半衰期。
