School of Agriculture and Food, The University of Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia.
Department of Land Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China.
Environ Pollut. 2021 Oct 1;286:117216. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2021.117216. Epub 2021 May 4.
The accuracy of the nitrogen (N) budget is of great importance for evidence-based decision-making to address both food security and environmental protection challenges. This study attempts to advance understanding of uncertainties in China's N budget using the Coupled Human And Natural Systems (CHANS) model and Monte Carlo simulation from 1980 to 2018. Results show that the spatial and temporal variations in agricultural and industrial activities and insufficient knowledge on N cycling parameterization are the two dominant causes of uncertainties in the N budget in China. Uncertainties of N inputs generally are <10%, while they are <30% for N outputs and >30% for N accumulations. Uncertainty of nitrogen oxides emission is more sensitive to energy consumption due to the large contributions from industry and transportation. While the uncertainty of ammonia emission is predominantly affected by agricultural activity. Combining surface measurements, satellite observations, and atmospheric simulation models enables cross-check of N fluxes in multiple systems and reduces uncertainties of N budget.
氮（N）预算的准确性对于基于证据的决策非常重要，这有助于解决粮食安全和环境保护方面的挑战。本研究利用耦合人类与自然系统（CHANS）模型和蒙特卡罗模拟，尝试从 1980 年到 2018 年，深入了解中国 N 预算中的不确定性。结果表明，农业和工业活动的时空变化以及对 N 循环参数化的了解不足，是造成中国 N 预算不确定性的两个主要原因。N 投入的不确定性一般 <10%，而 N 输出的不确定性 <30%，N 积累的不确定性 >30%。氮氧化物排放的不确定性对能源消耗更为敏感，因为工业和交通运输业的贡献较大。而氨排放的不确定性主要受农业活动的影响。结合地面测量、卫星观测和大气模拟模型，可对多个系统中的 N 通量进行交叉检查，从而降低 N 预算的不确定性。
