International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), El Batan, Mexico.
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Sep 10;786:147344. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147344. Epub 2021 Apr 29.
Climate change is and will continue to have significant implications for agricultural systems. While adaptation to climate change should be the priority for smallholder production systems, adoption of cost-effective mitigation options in agriculture not only contributes to food security but also reduces the extent of climate change and future adaptation needs. Utilizing management data from 16,413 and 12,548 crop and livestock farmers and associated soil and climatic data, we estimated GHG emissions generated from crop and livestock production using crop and livestock models, respectively. Mitigation measures in crop and livestock production, their mitigation potential and cost/benefit of adoption were then obtained from literature review, stakeholder consultations and expert opinion. We applied the identified mitigation measures to a realistic scale of adoption scenario in the short- (2030) and long-term (2050). Our results were then validated through stakeholders consultations. Here, we present identified mitigation options, their mitigation potentials and cost or benefit of adoption in the form of Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC). Based on our analysis, total GHG emissions from agricultural sector in Bangladesh for the year 2014-15 is 76.79 million tonne (Mt) carbon-dioxide equivalent (COe). Business-as-usual GHG emissions from the agricultural sector in Bangladesh are approximately 86.87 and 100.44 Mt COe year by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Adoption of climate-smart crop and livestock management options to reduce emissions considering a realistic adoption scenario would offer GHG mitigation opportunities of 9.51 and 14.21 Mt COe year by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Of this mitigation potential, 70-75% can be achieved through cost-saving options that could benefit smallholder farmers. Realization of this potential mitigation benefit, however, largely depends on the degree to which supportive policies and measures can encourage farmers' adoption of the identified climate smart agricultural techniques. Therefore, government should focus on facilitating uptake of these options through appropriate policy interventions, incentive mechanisms and strengthening agricultural extension programs.
气候变化已经并将继续对农业系统产生重大影响。虽然适应气候变化应该是小农生产系统的优先事项，但在农业中采用具有成本效益的缓解措施不仅有助于粮食安全，还有助于减少气候变化的程度和未来适应的需求。我们利用来自 16413 名和 12548 名作物和牲畜农民以及相关土壤和气候数据的管理数据，分别使用作物和牲畜模型估算了作物和牲畜生产产生的温室气体排放。然后通过文献综述、利益相关者磋商和专家意见获得了作物和牲畜生产中的缓解措施、其缓解潜力以及采用的成本/效益。我们将确定的缓解措施应用于短期（2030 年）和长期（2050 年）的现实采用情景规模。我们的结果随后通过利益相关者磋商进行了验证。在这里，我们以边际减排成本曲线（MACC）的形式展示了确定的缓解选择、它们的缓解潜力以及采用的成本或收益。根据我们的分析，2014-15 年孟加拉国农业部门的温室气体总排放量为 7679 万吨二氧化碳当量（COe）。到 2030 年和 2050 年，孟加拉国农业部门的温室气体排放量将分别达到约 8687 万吨和 10044 万吨二氧化碳当量。如果考虑到现实的采用情景，采用明智的作物和牲畜管理措施来减少排放，将分别提供 951 万吨和 1421 万吨二氧化碳当量的温室气体减排机会。在这一减排潜力中，有 70-75%可以通过能够使小农受益的节省成本的选择来实现。然而，实现这一潜在减排效益在很大程度上取决于支持性政策和措施在多大程度上能够鼓励农民采用确定的明智农业技术。因此，政府应通过适当的政策干预、激励机制和加强农业推广计划，重点促进这些选择的采用。
