Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Ryerson University, Toronto, Canada.
Department of Civil Engineering, East Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
Environ Monit Assess. 2021 May 11;193(6):336. doi: 10.1007/s10661-021-09068-0.
Contamination of urban water distribution systems (WDS) is a critical issue due to the number of victims that might be impacted in a short period of time. Any effective rapid emergency response plan for reducing the number of sick people or deaths among those drinking the polluted water requires a reliable forecast of the water contamination zoning map (CZM). The water CZM is a visual representation of the spread of contamination at the time of contamination detection. This study presents a novel methodology based on the rough set theory (RST) for real-time forecasting of the CZM caused by simultaneous multi-point contamination injection in WDS. Our proposed methodology consists of (i) a Monte Carlo simulation model to capture the uncertainties in a multi-point deliberate contamination, (ii) a numerical simulation model for simulating pipe flow, and (iii) a rough set-based technique for real-time CZM for a WDS equipped with a set of monitoring stations. The proposed methodology can be used for any type of random contamination of WDSs as well as emergencies in deliberate contamination of water distribution networks.
城市供水管网（WDS）的污染是一个关键问题，因为在短时间内可能会有大量受害者受到影响。任何有效快速的应急响应计划，以减少受污染水影响的人数或死亡人数，都需要对水污染分区图（CZM）进行可靠的预测。水污染分区图是在污染检测时污染扩散的直观表示。本研究提出了一种基于粗糙集理论（RST）的新方法，用于实时预测 WDS 中多点同时污染注入引起的 CZM。我们提出的方法包括（i）一个蒙特卡罗模拟模型，用于捕获多点蓄意污染中的不确定性，（ii）一个用于模拟管道流动的数值模拟模型，以及（iii）一个基于粗糙集的技术，用于配备一组监测站的 WDS 的实时 CZM。该方法可用于任何类型的 WDS 随机污染以及供水管网蓄意污染的紧急情况。
