Post-Traumatic Outcomes among Survivors of the Earthquake in Central Italy of August 24, 2016. A Study on PTSD Risk and Vulnerability Factors.

Central Italy suffered from the earthquake of 2016 resulting in great damage to the community. The purpose of the present study was to determine the long-term traumatic outcomes among the population. A preliminary study aimed at obtaining the Italian translation of the first 16 item of HTQ IV part [1] which was administered, 20 months after the disaster, at 281 survivors. In backward stepwise logistic regressions models, we estimated among the respondent's characteristics and event-related variables the best predictors of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD).A Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) revealed a HTQ five-factors solution as best model, with satisfactory indexes of fit. HTQ held a positive correlation with both the SQD-P (r = .65, p < .05) and SQD-D subscales (r = .47, p < .05). ROC analysis suggested an area of .951 (95% CI = .917-.985) for the PTSD prediction. Basing on sensibility (.963) and specificity (.189), the best cut-off of 2.0 allowed discriminating for PTSD positive cases. After 20 months of the earthquake, the estimate prevalence of PTSD among the survivors is of 21.71% with a consistent and graded association between exposure variables and vulnerability factors (gender, age, exposure to death and home damage) and PTSD symptoms.