Wildlife Institute of India, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India.
Department of Biological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata, West Bengal, India.
PLoS One. 2021 May 11;16(5):e0239690. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0239690. eCollection 2021.
The Himalayan region is one of the global biodiversity hotspots. However, its biodiversity and ecosystems are threatened due to abiotic and biotic drivers. One of the major biotic threats to biodiversity in this region is the rapid spread of Invasive Alien Species (IAS). Natural forests and grasslands are increasingly getting infested by IAS affecting regeneration of native species and decline in availability of bio-resources. Assessing the current status of IAS and prediction of their future spread would be vital for evolving specific species management interventions. Keeping this in view, we conducted an in-depth study on two IASs, viz., Ageratina adenophora and Lantana camara in the Indian part of Kailash Sacred Landscape (KSL), Western Himalaya. Intensive field surveys were conducted to collect the presence of A. adenophora (n = 567) and L. camara (n = 120) along an altitudinal gradient between 300 and 3000 m a.s.l. We performed Principal Component Analysis to nullify the multi-colinearity effects of the environmental predictors following MaxEnt species distribution model in the current and future climatic scenarios for both the species. All current and future model precision (i.e., Area Under the Curve; AUC) for both species was higher than 0.81. It is predicted that under the current rate of climate change and higher emission (i.e., RCP 8.5 pathway), A. adenophora will spread 45.3% more than its current distribution and is likely to reach up to 3029 m a.s.l., whereas, L. camara will spread 29.8% more than its current distribution range and likely to reach up to 3018 m a.s.l. Our results will help in future conservation planning and participatory management of forests and grasslands in the Kailash Sacred Landscape-India.
喜马拉雅地区是全球生物多样性热点地区之一。然而，由于非生物和生物驱动因素的影响，其生物多样性和生态系统受到威胁。该地区生物多样性的主要生物威胁之一是入侵外来物种（IAS）的迅速传播。自然森林和草原越来越受到 IAS 的侵袭，这影响了本地物种的再生和生物资源的可用性下降。评估 IAS 的现状和预测其未来的传播对于制定特定物种管理干预措施至关重要。考虑到这一点，我们对喜马拉雅西部的印度凯拉萨圣地景观（KSL）中的两种 IAS，即腺梗菊（Ageratina adenophora）和马缨丹（Lantana camara）进行了深入研究。我们进行了密集的实地调查，以收集 300 至 3000 米海拔范围内腺梗菊（n = 567）和马缨丹（n = 120）的存在情况。我们进行了主成分分析，以消除环境预测因子的多重共线性影响，然后使用 MaxEnt 物种分布模型在当前和未来气候情景下对这两个物种进行分析。这两个物种的所有当前和未来模型精度（即曲线下面积；AUC）均高于 0.81。预计在当前气候变化速度和更高排放（即 RCP 8.5 途径）下，腺梗菊的分布范围将比目前增加 45.3%，并可能延伸到 3029 米的海拔，而马缨丹的分布范围将比目前增加 29.8%，并可能延伸到 3018 米的海拔。我们的研究结果将有助于未来对凯拉萨圣地景观-印度的森林和草原进行保护规划和参与式管理。
