Predicting the potential global distribution of under current and future climate change scenarios.

AIM

Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten ecosystems and humans worldwide, and future climate change may accelerate the expansion of IAS. Predicting the suitable areas of IAS can prevent their further expansion. is an invasive weed over 30 countries in tropical and subtropical regions. However, the potential suitable areas of remain unclear along with its response to climate change. This study explored and mapped the current and future potential suitable areas of .

LOCATION

Global.

TAXA

Asteraceae R.M.King & H.Rob. Commonly known as Crofton weed.

METHODS

Based on occurrence data and climate data, we predicted its suitable areas of this weed under current and future (four RCPs in 2050 and 2070) by MaxEnt model. We used ArcGIS 10.4 to explore the potential suitable area distribution characteristics of this weed and the "ecospat" package in R to analyze its altitudinal distribution changes.

RESULTS

The area under the curve (AUC) value (>0.9) and true skill statistics (TSS) value (>0.8) indicated excelled model performance. Among environment factors, mean temperature of coldest quarter contributed most to the model. Globally, the suitable areas for . invasion decreased under climate change scenarios, although regional increases were observed, including in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable areas of . under climate change would expand in regions with higher elevation (3,000-3,500 m).

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Mean temperature of coldest quarter was the most important variable influencing the potential suitable area of . Under the background of a warming climate, the potential suitable area of . will shrink globally but increase in six biodiversity hotspot regions. The potential suitable area of .  would expand at higher elevation (3,000-3,500 m) under climate change. Mountain ecosystems are of special concern as they are rich in biodiversity and sensitive to climate change, and increasing human activities provide more opportunities for IAS invasion.