School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW, 2351, Australia.
Department of Forest and Resource Management, Toi Ohomai Institute of Technology, Rotorua, 3046, New Zealand.
Ambio. 2018 Oct;47(6):697-710. doi: 10.1007/s13280-018-1017-z. Epub 2018 Jan 25.
Climate change will impact the dynamics of invasive alien plant species (IAPS). However, the ability of IAPS under changing climate to invade mountain ecosystems, particularly the Himalayan region, is less known. This study investigates the current and future habitat of five IAPS of the Himalayan region using MaxEnt and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Two invasive species, Ageratum conyzoides and Parthenium hysterophorus, will lose overall suitable area by 2070, while Ageratina adenophora, Chromolaena odorata and Lantana camara will gain suitable areas and all of them will retain most of the current habitat as stable. The southern Himalayan foothills will mostly conserve species ecological niches, while suitability of all the five species will decrease with increasing elevation. Such invasion dynamics in the Himalayan region could have impacts on numerous ecosystems and their biota, ecosystem services and human well-being. Trans-boundary response strategies suitable to the local context of the region could buffer some of the likely invasion impacts.
气候变化将影响入侵外来植物物种（IAPS）的动态。然而，在气候变化下，IAPS 侵入山地生态系统（特别是喜马拉雅地区）的能力知之甚少。本研究使用 MaxEnt 和两种代表性浓度途径（RCPs）来研究喜马拉雅地区的五种 IAPS 的当前和未来生境。到 2070 年，两种入侵物种，苍耳和豚草，将失去整体适宜区，而银胶菊、飞机草和马缨丹将获得适宜区，并且它们都将保留大部分当前栖息地作为稳定区。南喜马拉雅山麓将主要保护物种生态位，而所有五个物种的适宜性都将随着海拔的升高而降低。这种喜马拉雅地区的入侵动态可能对众多生态系统及其生物多样性、生态系统服务和人类福祉产生影响。适合该地区当地情况的跨界应对策略可以缓冲一些可能的入侵影响。
