在英格兰，与胆结石相关的住院人数存在季节性变化吗？

Is there seasonal variation in gallstone related admissions in England?

作者信息

Taib Adnan, Killick Rebecca, Hussain Kamran, Patel Harun, Obeidallah Mohd R

机构信息

Department of General Surgery, East Lancashire Hospitals NHS Trusts, Blackburn, UK; Blackburn Research Innovation Development Group in General Surgery, Blackburn, UK.

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.

出版信息

HPB (Oxford). 2021 Nov;23(11):1732-1743. doi: 10.1016/j.hpb.2021.04.009. Epub 2021 Apr 27.

DOI:10.1016/j.hpb.2021.04.009

PMID:33975800

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Gallstone related pathology (GRP) accounts for a significant proportion of general surgery admissions. The aim of this study is to investigate if seasonal variation for GRP admissions exist in England allowing improved resource allocation and planning.

METHODS

This multicentre retrospective cohort study included only emergency adult (≥18 years old) admissions to acute secondary care with ICD-10 codes associated with gallstones between 01/01/2010 to 31/12/2019 in England using Hospital Episode Statistics data. Seasons were defined according to United Kingdom Met Office.

RESULTS

A total of 396 879 GRP related admissions were recorded during the specified period, accounting for 1.44% of all emergency admissions. Our study suggests a significant seasonal peak in Summer (n = 102 620) based cumulative admissions per season and a linear regression model (p < 0.001), followed by Autumn (n = 102 267), then Spring (n = 97 807) and finally Winter (n = 94 185). Spectral analysis confirmed there is seasonality in the emergency GRP admissions every 12 months. A forecasting model was shown to be reliable; all observed admissions for 2019 were within the 95% prediction intervals for each month for the proportion of emergency GRP admissions.

CONCLUSION

Resource allocation towards the Summer months to target seasonal peaks in GRP should be considered.

摘要

背景

胆结石相关病理（GRP）在普通外科住院患者中占相当大的比例。本研究的目的是调查英格兰GRP住院患者是否存在季节性变化，以便更好地进行资源分配和规划。

方法

这项多中心回顾性队列研究仅纳入了2010年1月1日至2019年12月31日期间在英格兰因与胆结石相关的ICD-10编码而紧急入住急性二级护理机构的成年（≥18岁）患者，数据来源于医院事件统计。季节根据英国气象局的定义划分。

结果

在指定期间共记录了396879例与GRP相关的住院病例，占所有紧急住院病例的1.44%。我们的研究表明，基于每个季节的累计住院人数，夏季（n = 102620）出现显著的季节性高峰，线性回归模型显示（p < 0.001），其次是秋季（n = 102267），然后是春季（n = 97807），最后是冬季（n = 94185）。频谱分析证实，紧急GRP住院病例每12个月存在季节性变化。一个预测模型被证明是可靠的；2019年所有观察到的住院病例都在每个月紧急GRP住院病例比例的95%预测区间内。