State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
College of Water Resource and Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
PLoS One. 2021 May 12;16(5):e0251212. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0251212. eCollection 2021.
As natural backwater structures, landslide dams both threaten downstream human settlement or infrastructure and contain abundant hydro-energy and tourism resources, so research on their development feasibility is of great significance for permanently remedying them and effectively turning disasters into benefits. Through an analysis of the factors influencing landslide dam development and utilization, an index system (consisting of target, rule, and index layers) for evaluating development feasibility was constructed in this paper. Considering uncertainty and randomness in development feasibility evaluation, a cloud model-improved evaluation method was proposed to determine membership and score clouds based on the uncertainty reasoning of cloud model, and a cloud model-improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP-Cloud Model) was introduced to obtain weights. Final evaluation results were obtained using a hierarchical weighted summary. The improved method was applied to evaluate the Hongshiyan and Tangjiashan landslide dams and the results were compared with the maximum membership principle results. The results showed that the cloud model depicted the fuzziness and uncertainty in the evaluation process. The improved method proposed in this paper overcame the loss of fuzziness in the maximum membership principle evaluation results, and was capable of more directly presenting evaluation results. The development feasibility of the Hongshiyan landslide dam was relatively high, while that of the Tangjiashan landslide dam was relatively low. As suggested by these results, the evaluation model proposed in this paper has great significance for preparing a long-term management scheme for landslide dams.
作为天然的回水建筑物，滑坡坝既威胁着下游的人类住区或基础设施，又蕴含着丰富的水能和旅游资源，因此研究其开发可行性对于永久治理它们并将灾害转化为效益具有重要意义。通过分析影响滑坡坝开发利用的因素，本文构建了一个评价开发可行性的指标体系（包括目标层、准则层和指标层）。考虑到开发可行性评价中的不确定性和随机性，提出了一种基于云模型不确定性推理的确定隶属度和评分云的云模型改进评价方法，并引入了云模型改进层次分析法（AHP-Cloud Model）来获取权重。最终的评价结果通过层次加权汇总得出。将改进后的方法应用于红石山和唐家山滑坡坝的评价，并将结果与最大隶属度原则的结果进行比较。结果表明，云模型描述了评价过程中的模糊性和不确定性。本文提出的改进方法克服了最大隶属度原则评价结果中模糊性的损失，能够更直接地呈现评价结果。红石山滑坡坝的开发可行性相对较高，而唐家山滑坡坝的开发可行性相对较低。根据这些结果，本文提出的评价模型对于制定滑坡坝的长期管理方案具有重要意义。
