North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450046, China.
Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited, Xi'an, 710065, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jun;30(29):73913-73927. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-27514-z. Epub 2023 May 18.
Risk assessment for landslide dams is very important to avoid unanticipated landslide failure and calamity. Recognition of the risk of landslide dams associated with changing influencing factors is to identify the risk grade and provide early warning of oncoming failure, while quantitative risk analysis of landslide dams due to many influencing factors changing in spatiotemporal domain is currently lacking. We applied the model to analyze the risk level of the Tangjiashan landslide dam caused by the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake. The risk evaluation, obtained according to the analysis of the influencing factors located in the risk assessment grade criteria, clearly shows that the risk reaches a higher level at that moment. Our analysis shows that the risk level of landslide dams can be quantitatively analyzed with our assessment method. Our results suggest that the risk assessment system can be an effective measure to dynamically predict the risk level and provide a sufficient early warning of the oncoming hazard by analyzing the variables of influencing factors at different times.
滑坡坝的风险评估对于避免意外的滑坡失稳和灾害非常重要。识别与变化影响因素相关的滑坡坝风险是为了确定风险等级并提供即将发生的失稳的预警，而由于时空域中许多影响因素的变化，滑坡坝的定量风险分析目前还缺乏。我们应用该模型分析了汶川 Ms8.0 地震引起的唐家山滑坡坝的风险水平。根据位于风险评估等级标准内的影响因素的分析得到的风险评价，清楚地表明当时的风险达到了更高的水平。我们的分析表明，我们的评估方法可以对滑坡坝的风险水平进行定量分析。我们的结果表明，风险评估系统可以通过分析不同时间影响因素的变量，成为一种有效的措施来动态预测风险水平并为即将到来的危险提供充分的预警。
