Land use land cover change and the resilience of social-ecological systems in a sub-region in South west Cameroon.

The old paradigm of horizontal expansion of agricultural land and built-up areas over highland and lowland ecosystems remains highly prevalent in Cameroon, causing significant changes in LULC and undermining the resilience and sustainability of social-ecological systems. We analysed satellite imagery of 1986 and 2018 to examine the extent and spatial patterns of LULCC in Fako sub-region of Cameroon. In addition, we explored the likelihood of LULCC and magnitude of impact of the drivers and predictors of LULCC in the sub-region by engaging 25 stakeholders in a focus group survey. Other cultivated areas of cropland, built-up, oil palm, and banana plantation covers increased by 21,360 ha (10.5%), 3152 ha (1.6%), 5721 ha (2.8%), and 1823 ha (0.9%), while dense forest, rubber and tea plantation covers decreased by - 44,945 ha (- 22.1%), - 15,557 ha (- 7.7%), and - 110 ha (- 0.1%), respectively, from 1986 to 2018. Most of the deforestation and LULCC was caused by expansion of other cultivated areas of cropland by smallholders, contrary to the widely publicised narrative of agro-industrial and built-up areas expansion. The spatial pattern of LULCC showed that expansion of other cultivated areas of cropland and agro-industrial plantations were highest in the north and east zones, respectively, while expansion of built-up areas and decrease in agro-industrial plantation covers were highest in the central, south and western coastal zones of Fako division. The variations in the spatial patterns of LULCC between the sub-divisions are attributed to differences in rates of population growth and urbanisation, topography, size of farming population, proportion of cultivable land, socio-economic opportunities, and strength and resilience of local economy. The presence of the Mount Cameroon (4095 m), with high value forests, endemism, and conservation attractiveness restricted increased LULCC with elevation, while LULCC increased with nearness to the sea and national road networks. The likelihood of change from one LULC to oil palm plantation, banana plantation, and other cultivated areas and from rubber plantation, dense forest, lowland grassland to other land uses was 95% and 90%, respectively. Population growth, agricultural and farmland expansion, and infrastructural development were ranked as the three most important drivers of degradation under the business as usual scenario, while sustainable land management, good governance, and reforestation were ranked as the three most important predictors of LULCC reduction under the green economy scenario. In general, production and living space functions significantly increased at the expense of ecological land cover. Prioritising and increasing the legal protection of the mountain and coastal land-boundary ecosystems while providing for production and living land are invaluable for the sustainability of the social-ecological systems in the western highlands of Cameroon.