School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, USA.
Scand J Public Health. 2022 Feb;50(1):46-51. doi: 10.1177/14034948211010017. Epub 2021 May 13.
To determine whether differences between Norway's and Sweden's attempts to contain SARS-CoV-2 infection coincided with detectably different changes in their all-cause mortality sex ratios. Measuring temporal variation in the all-cause mortality sex ratio before and during the pandemic in populations exposed to different constraints on risky behavior would allow us to better anticipate changes in the ratio and to better understand its association with infection control strategies.
I apply time Box-Jenkins modeling to 262 months of pre-pandemic mortality sex ratios to arrive at counterfactual values of 10 intra-pandemic ratios. I compare counterfactual to observed values to determine if intra-pandemic ratios differed detectably from those expected as well as whether the Norwegian and Swedish differences varied from each other.
The male to female mortality sex ratio in both Norway and Sweden increased during the pandemic. I, however, find no evidence that the increase differed between the two countries despite their different COVID-19 containment strategies.
Societal expectations of who will die during the COVID-19 pandemic will likely be wrong if they assume pre-pandemic mortality sex ratios because the intra-pandemic ratios appear, at least in Norway and Sweden, detectably higher. The contribution of differences in policies to reduce risky behavior to those higher ratios appears, however, small.
确定挪威和瑞典在控制 SARS-CoV-2 感染方面的尝试是否存在差异，以及这些差异是否与全因死亡率性别比的明显变化有关。在大流行期间，测量暴露于不同风险行为限制的人群中全因死亡率性别比的时间变化，可以帮助我们更好地预测比值的变化，并更好地理解其与感染控制策略的关系。
我应用时间 Box-Jenkins 模型对 262 个月的大流行前死亡率性别比进行分析，得出 10 个大流行期间的比值的反事实值。我将反事实值与实际值进行比较，以确定大流行期间的比值是否与预期值有明显差异，以及挪威和瑞典之间的差异是否相互不同。
在挪威和瑞典，男性和女性的死亡率性别比在大流行期间都有所增加。然而，我没有发现证据表明这两个国家之间的增加存在差异，尽管它们采取了不同的 COVID-19 控制策略。
如果社会基于大流行前的死亡率性别比来预测谁将在 COVID-19 大流行期间死亡，那么这种预测很可能是错误的，因为大流行期间的比值明显更高。然而，减少风险行为的政策差异对这些更高比值的贡献似乎很小。
