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利用结构方程模型评估气候变量与全株玉米产量之间的因果关系。

Assessment of causality between climate variables and production for whole crop maize using structural equation modeling.

作者信息

Kim Moonju, Sung Kyungil

机构信息

Institute of Animal Resources, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon 24341, Korea.

Department of Animal Industry Convergence, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon 24341, Korea.

出版信息

J Anim Sci Technol. 2021 Mar;63(2):339-353. doi: 10.5187/jast.2021.e36. Epub 2021 Mar 31.

DOI:10.5187/jast.2021.e36
PMID:33987609
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8071745/
Abstract

This study aimed to assess the causality of different climate variables on the production of whole crop maize ( L.; WCM) in the central inland region of the Korea. Furthermore, the effect of these climate variables was also determined by looking at direct and indirect pathways during the stages before and after silking. The WCM metadata (n = 640) were collected from the Rural Development Administration's reports of new variety adaptability from 1985-2011 (27 years). The climate data was collected based on year and location from the Korean Meteorology Administration's weather information system. Causality, in this study, was defined by various cause-and-effect relationships between climatic factors, such as temperature, rainfall amount, sunshine duration, wind speed and relative humidity in the seeding to silking stage and the silking to harvesting stage. All climate variables except wind speed were different before and after the silking stage, which indicates the silking occurred during the period when the Korean season changed from spring to summer. Therefore, the structure of causality was constructed by taking account of the climate variables that were divided by the silking stage. In particular, the indirect effect of rainfall through the appropriate temperature range was different before and after the silking stage. The damage caused by heat-humidity was having effect before the silking stage while the damage caused by night-heat was not affecting WCM production. There was a large variation in soil surface temperature and rainfall before and after the silking stage. Over 350 mm of rainfall affected dry matter yield (DMY) when soil surface temperatures were less than 22°C before the silking stage. Over 900 mm of rainfall also affected DMY when soil surface temperatures were over 27°C after the silking stage. For the longitudinal effects of soil surface temperature and rainfall amount, less than 22°C soil surface temperature and over 300 mm of rainfall before the silking stage affected yield through over 26°C soil surface temperature and less than 900 mm rainfall after the silking stage, respectively.

摘要

本研究旨在评估韩国中部内陆地区不同气候变量对全株玉米(L.;WCM)产量的因果关系。此外,还通过观察抽丝前后阶段的直接和间接途径来确定这些气候变量的影响。WCM元数据(n = 640)收集自农村发展管理局1985 - 2011年(27年)的新品种适应性报告。气候数据是根据年份和地点从韩国气象管理局的天气信息系统收集的。在本研究中,因果关系由播种至抽丝阶段以及抽丝至收获阶段的温度、降雨量、日照时长、风速和相对湿度等气候因素之间的各种因果关系定义。除风速外,所有气候变量在抽丝阶段前后均有所不同,这表明抽丝发生在韩国季节从春季向夏季转变的时期。因此,通过考虑按抽丝阶段划分的气候变量来构建因果关系结构。特别是,降雨通过适宜温度范围的间接影响在抽丝阶段前后有所不同。湿热造成的损害在抽丝阶段之前起作用,而夜热造成的损害对WCM产量没有影响。抽丝阶段前后土壤表面温度和降雨量有很大变化。在抽丝阶段之前,当土壤表面温度低于22°C时,超过350毫米的降雨量会影响干物质产量(DMY)。在抽丝阶段之后,当土壤表面温度超过27°C时,超过900毫米的降雨量也会影响DMY。对于土壤表面温度和降雨量的纵向影响,抽丝阶段之前低于22°C的土壤表面温度和超过300毫米的降雨量分别通过抽丝阶段之后超过26°C的土壤表面温度和低于900毫米的降雨量影响产量。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ae15/8071745/51de92764e83/jast-63-2-339-g3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ae15/8071745/f8213003c674/jast-63-2-339-g1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ae15/8071745/86bc048f5a74/jast-63-2-339-g2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ae15/8071745/51de92764e83/jast-63-2-339-g3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ae15/8071745/f8213003c674/jast-63-2-339-g1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ae15/8071745/86bc048f5a74/jast-63-2-339-g2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ae15/8071745/51de92764e83/jast-63-2-339-g3.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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