Am Nat. 2021 Jun;197(6):E173-E187. doi: 10.1086/714130. Epub 2021 Apr 19.
AbstractAs climate changes, species' ability to spatially track suitable climate depends on their spread velocity, a function of their population growth and dispersal capacity. When climate changes faster than species can spread, the climate experienced at species' expanding range edges may ameliorate as conditions become increasingly similar to those of the range core. When this boosts species' growth rates, their spread accelerates. Here, we use simulations of a spreading population with an annual life history to explore how climatic amelioration interacts with dispersal evolution and local adaptation to determine the dynamics of spread. We found that depending on the timing of dispersal evolution, spread velocity can show contrasting trajectories, sometimes transiently exceeding the climate velocity before decelerating. Climatic amelioration can also accelerate the spread of populations composed of genotypes best adapted to local climatic conditions, but the exact dynamics depends on the pattern of climatic adaptation. We conclude that failing to account for demographic variation across climatic gradients can lead to erroneous conclusions about species' capacity to spatially track suitable climate.
随着气候变化，物种在空间上追踪适宜气候的能力取决于它们的扩散速度，这是其种群增长和扩散能力的函数。当气候变化速度超过物种扩散速度时，物种扩张范围边缘的气候条件可能会改善，因为这些条件变得越来越类似于范围核心的条件。当这种情况提高了物种的增长率时，它们的扩散速度就会加快。在这里，我们使用具有年度生命史的扩散种群的模拟来探索气候改善如何与扩散进化和局部适应相互作用，以确定扩散的动态。我们发现，根据扩散进化的时间，扩散速度可能会表现出相反的轨迹，有时会在减速之前暂时超过气候速度。气候改善也可以加速由最适应当地气候条件的基因型组成的种群的扩散，但确切的动态取决于气候适应的模式。我们的结论是，如果不考虑气候梯度上的种群变异，可能会对物种在空间上追踪适宜气候的能力产生错误的结论。
