Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom.
Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2013 Sep;1297:83-97. doi: 10.1111/nyas.12211. Epub 2013 Jul 30.
Local adaptation and species interactions have been shown to affect geographic ranges; therefore, we need models of climate impact that include both factors. To identify possible dynamics of species when including these factors, we ran simulations of two competing species using an individual-based, coupled map-lattice model using a linear climatic gradient that varies across latitude and is warmed over time. Reproductive success is governed by an individual's adaptation to local climate as well as its location relative to global constraints. In exploratory experiments varying the strength of adaptation and competition, competition reduces genetic diversity and slows range change, although the two species can coexist in the absence of climate change and shift in the absence of competitors. We also found that one species can drive the other to extinction, sometimes long after climate change ends. Weak selection on local adaptation and poor dispersal ability also caused surfing of cooler-adapted phenotypes from the expanding margin backwards, causing loss of warmer-adapted phenotypes. Finally, geographic ranges can become disjointed, losing centrally-adapted genotypes. These initial results suggest that the interplay between local adaptation and interspecific competition can significantly influence species' responses to climate change, in a way that demands future research.
本地适应和物种相互作用已被证明会影响地理分布范围；因此，我们需要将这两个因素都包含在内的气候影响模型。为了在包含这些因素的情况下确定物种可能的动态，我们使用基于个体的耦合映射晶格模型对两种竞争物种进行了模拟，该模型使用了随纬度变化且随时间变暖的线性气候梯度。生殖成功率由个体对本地气候的适应以及其相对于全球限制的位置决定。在探索性实验中，我们改变了适应和竞争的强度，结果发现竞争会降低遗传多样性并减缓分布范围的变化，尽管在没有气候变化和没有竞争者的情况下，两种物种可以共存。我们还发现，一种物种有时会在气候变化结束很久之后将另一种物种推向灭绝。本地适应的弱选择和较差的扩散能力也导致了更适应凉爽气候的表型从扩展边缘向后“冲浪”，从而导致更适应温暖气候的表型丧失。最后，地理分布范围可能会变得不连贯，失去中心适应的基因型。这些初步结果表明，本地适应和种间竞争之间的相互作用可能会显著影响物种对气候变化的反应，这需要未来的研究。
