Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Methodology (CCEM), Guangdong Second Provincial General Hospital, Guangzhou, 510317, China.
Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China.
Eur J Epidemiol. 2021 Aug;36(8):793-812. doi: 10.1007/s10654-021-00751-7. Epub 2021 May 15.
PURPOSE: To systematically review available evidence of indirect comparisons from RCTs and direct comparisons from observational studies regarding the comparative effectiveness and safety of DOACs in patients with AF. METHODS: Electronic databases including EMBASE, MEDLINE, and PUBMED were searched up to June 5th, 2020. Primary endpoints included effectiveness (stroke or systemic embolism [SE]) and safety (major bleeding) outcomes. Bucher methods and random-effects models were conducted for indirect and direct comparisons among DOACs, respectively. Ranking probability analyses and the number needed to treat for net effect (NNTnet) were applied. RESULTS: A total of 36 studies, involving 7 RCTs (n = 60,292 patients) and 29 observational studies (n = 1,164,821 patients), were included for analyses. Regarding the risk of stroke/SE, no significant differences were found from indirect comparisons of RCTs among the DOACs. For major bleeding, apixaban tended to be safer than rivaroxaban and dabigatran based on both direct and indirect comparisons (all p < 0.05; evidence quality: very low to moderate). Ranking probability analysis showed that apixaban had a high probability of being the best treatment in decreased risk of stroke/SE and major bleeding (80.30% and 91.30%, respectively). Likewise, apixaban was found to have the highest net clinical benefit (0.02, 95% CI: 0.014-0.029) and smallest NNTnet (48, 95% CI: 35-74). CONCLUSIONS: Apixaban appeared to have a favorable effectiveness-safety profile compared with the other DOACs in AF for stroke prevention, based on evidence from both direct and indirect comparisons. However, additional high-quality evidence is needed to support firm recommendations on clinical decision-making.
目的:系统评价随机对照试验(RCT)的间接比较和观察性研究的直接比较,评估非维生素 K 拮抗剂口服抗凝药(DOACs)在房颤患者中的有效性和安全性。
方法:检索 EMBASE、MEDLINE 和 PUBMED 等电子数据库,检索时间截至 2020 年 6 月 5 日。主要终点包括有效性(卒中和全身性栓塞[SE])和安全性(大出血)结局。分别采用 Bucher 方法和随机效应模型对 DOACs 进行间接和直接比较。应用排序概率分析和净疗效需要治疗数(NNTnet)。
结果:共纳入 36 项研究,包括 7 项 RCT(n=60292 例患者)和 29 项观察性研究(n=1164821 例患者)。RCT 的间接比较显示,在卒中/SE 风险方面,各 DOAC 之间无显著差异。对于大出血,阿哌沙班与利伐沙班和达比加群相比,基于直接和间接比较,均显示出更高的安全性(均 P<0.05;证据质量:低至中度)。排序概率分析显示,在降低卒中/SE 和大出血风险方面,阿哌沙班很可能是最佳治疗药物(分别为 80.30%和 91.30%)。同样,阿哌沙班也被发现具有最高的净临床获益(0.02,95%CI:0.014-0.029)和最小的 NNTnet(48,95%CI:35-74)。
结论:基于直接和间接比较证据,阿哌沙班在房颤患者的卒中预防方面显示出优于其他 DOAC 的有效性-安全性特征。但是,需要更多高质量的证据来支持关于临床决策的明确建议。
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