一种描述中国新冠疫情动态的改进型SIR模型。
An improved SIR model describing the epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 in China.
作者信息
Zhu Wen-Jing, Shen Shou-Feng
机构信息
Affiliated Mental Health Center & Hangzhou Seventh People's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310013, China.
Department of Applied Mathematics, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China.
出版信息
Results Phys. 2021 Jun;25:104289. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104289. Epub 2021 May 8.
In this letter, an improved SIR (ISIR) model is proposed, to analyze the spread of COVID-19 during the time window 21/01/2020-08/02/2021. The parameters can be extracted from an inverse problem of the ISIR to assess the risk of COVID-19. This study identifies that the cure rate is 0.05 and the reproduction number is 0.4490 during the time interval. The prediction values demonstrates high similarity to the reported data. The results indicate that the disease had been under control in China.
在这封信中，提出了一种改进的SIR（ISIR）模型，用于分析2020年1月21日至2021年2月8日时间窗口内新冠病毒病的传播情况。可以从ISIR的一个反问题中提取参数，以评估新冠病毒病的风险。本研究确定在该时间间隔内治愈率为0.05，繁殖数为0.4490。预测值与报告数据显示出高度相似性。结果表明该疾病在中国已得到控制。
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