Wan Jun-Nan, Mbari Ndungu J, Wang Sheng-Wei, Liu Bing, Mwangi Brian N, Rasoarahona Jean R E, Xin Hai-Ping, Zhou Ya-Dong, Wang Qing-Feng
Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, Hubei, 430074, PR China.
Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, Hubei, 430074, PR China.
Plant Divers. 2020 Jul 18;43(2):117-124. doi: 10.1016/j.pld.2020.07.001. eCollection 2021 Apr.
Madagascar, a globally renowned biodiversity hotspot characterized by high rates of endemism, is one of the few remaining refugia for many plants and animal species. However, global climate change has greatly affected the natural ecosystem and endemic species living in Madagascar, and will likely continue to influence species distribution in the future. Madagascar is home to six endemic baobab ( spp., Bombacoideae [Malvaceae]) species (, , , , , ), which are remarkable and endangered plants. This study aimed to model the current distribution of suitable habitat for each baobab species endemic to Madagascar and determine the effect that climate change will have on suitable baobab habitat by the years 2050 and 2070. The distribution was modeled using MaxEnt based on locality information of 245 occurrence sites of six species from both online database and our own field work. A total of seven climatic variables were used for the modeling process. The present distribution of all six Madagascar's baobabs was largely influenced by temperature-related factors. Although both expansion and contraction of suitable habitat are predicted for all species, loss of original suitable habitat is predicted to be extensive. For the most widespread Madagascar baobab, , more than 40% of its original habitat is predicted to be lost because of climate change. Based on these findings, we recommend that areas predicted to contract in response to climate change should be designated key protection regions for baobab conservation.
马达加斯加是全球著名的生物多样性热点地区，以高比例的特有物种为特征，是许多动植物物种仅存的少数避难所之一。然而，全球气候变化极大地影响了马达加斯加的自然生态系统和当地物种，并且未来可能会继续影响物种分布。马达加斯加是六种特有猴面包树（猴面包树属，锦葵科）物种（阿当松氏猴面包树、博兹猴面包树、格兰迪迪尔猴面包树、苏亚雷斯猴面包树、塔那拉猴面包树、拉穆勒猴面包树）的家园，这些都是引人注目的濒危植物。本研究旨在模拟马达加斯加特有猴面包树物种目前适宜栖息地的分布情况，并确定到2050年和2070年气候变化将对猴面包树适宜栖息地产生的影响。利用最大熵模型（MaxEnt），根据在线数据库和我们自己的实地调查中六个物种245个出现地点的位置信息对分布情况进行建模。建模过程共使用了七个气候变量。马达加斯加所有六种猴面包树目前的分布在很大程度上受温度相关因素影响。尽管预计所有物种的适宜栖息地都会出现扩张和收缩，但预计原始适宜栖息地的丧失将很广泛。对于分布最广的马达加斯加猴面包树——阿当松氏猴面包树，预计由于气候变化其超过40%的原始栖息地将会丧失。基于这些发现，我们建议将预计会因气候变化而收缩的区域指定为猴面包树保护的关键区域。
