Fan Zhi-Feng, Zhou Bing-Jiang, Ma Chang-Le, Gao Can, Han Dan-Ni, Chai Yong
Southwest Research Center for Engineering Technology of Landscape Architecture (State Forestry and Grassland Administration), College of Landscape Architecture and Horticulture Sciences Southwest Forestry University Kunming China.
Kunming University of Science and Technology Kunming China.
Ecol Evol. 2022 Dec 13;12(12):e9516. doi: 10.1002/ece3.9516. eCollection 2022 Dec.
Climate change is an important driver of species distribution and biodiversity. Understanding the response of plants to climate change is helpful to understand species differentiation and formulate conservation strategies. The genus (Theaceae) has an ancient origin and is widely distributed in subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests. Studies on the impacts of climate change on species geographical distribution of Chinese can provide an important reference for exploring the responses of plant groups in subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests with geological events and climate change in China. Based on the environmental variables, distribution records, and chloroplast genomes, we modeled the potential distribution of Chinese in the Last Glacial Maximum, middle Holocene, current, and future by using MaxEnt-ArcGIS model and molecular phylogenetic method. The changes in the species distribution area, centroid shift, and ecological niche in each periods were analyzed to speculate the response modes of Chinese to climate change in different periods. The most important environmental factor affecting the distribution of was the precipitation of the driest month, ranging from 13 to 25 mm for the highly suitable habitats. At present, highly suitable distribution areas of were mainly located in the south of 25°N, and had species-specificity. The main glacial refugia of the Chinese might be located in the Ailao, Gaoligong, and Dawei Mountains of Yunnan Province. Jinping County, Pingbian County, and the Maguan County at the border of China and Vietnam might be the species differentiation center of the Chinese . Moderate climate warming in the future would be beneficial to the survival of , , and . However, climate warming under different shared socio-economic pathways would reduce the suitable habitats of and .
气候变化是物种分布和生物多样性的重要驱动因素。了解植物对气候变化的响应有助于理解物种分化并制定保护策略。属（山茶科）起源古老，广泛分布于亚热带常绿阔叶林。研究气候变化对中国物种地理分布的影响，可为探讨中国亚热带常绿阔叶林植物类群对地质事件和气候变化的响应提供重要参考。基于环境变量、分布记录和叶绿体基因组，我们利用MaxEnt-ArcGIS模型和分子系统发育方法对末次盛冰期、中全新世、当前和未来中国的潜在分布进行了建模。分析了各时期物种分布面积、质心移动和生态位的变化，以推测中国在不同时期对气候变化的响应模式。影响分布的最重要环境因子是最干燥月份的降水量，高度适宜栖息地的降水量范围为13至25毫米。目前，的高度适宜分布区主要位于北纬25°以南，且具有物种特异性。中国的主要冰期避难所可能位于云南省的哀牢山、高黎贡山和大围山。中国与越南边境的金平县、屏边县和马关县可能是中国的物种分化中心。未来适度的气候变暖将有利于**、和的生存。然而，不同共享社会经济路径下的气候变暖将减少和的适宜栖息地。
