Salvà-Catarineu Montserrat, Romo Angel, Mazur Małgorzata, Zielińska Monika, Minissale Pietro, Dönmez Ali A, Boratyńska Krystyna, Boratyński Adam
Department of Geography Universitat de Barcelona Barcelona Spain.
Botanical Institute of Spanish National Research Council CSIC Barcelona Spain.
Ecol Evol. 2021 Mar 25;11(10):5075-5095. doi: 10.1002/ece3.7395. eCollection 2021 May.
The aim of this study is to model the past, current, and future distribution of ., , and , based on bioclimatic variables using a maximum entropy model (Maxent) in the Mediterranean and Macaronesian regions.
Mediterranean and Macaronesian.
Cupressaceae, Juniperus.
Data on the occurrence of the complex were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF.org), the literature, herbaria, and the authors' field notes. Bioclimatic variables were obtained from the WorldClim database and Paleoclim. The climate data related to species localities were used for predictions of niches by implementation of Maxent, and the model was evaluated with ENMeval.
The potential niches of during the Last Interglacial period (LIG), Last Glacial Maximum climate (LGM), and Mid-Holocene (MH) covered 30%, 10%, and almost 100%, respectively, of the current potential niche. Climate warming may reduce potential niches by 30% in RCP2.6 and by 90% in RCP8.5. The potential niches of had a broad circum-Mediterranean and Canarian distribution during the LIG and the MH; its distribution extended during the LGM when it was found in more areas than at present. The predicted warming in scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 could reduce the current potential niche by 30% and 50%, respectively. The model did not find suitable niches for during the LIG and the LGM, but during the MH its potential niche was 30% larger than at present. The climate warming scenario RCP2.6 indicates a reduction in the potential niche by 30%, while RCP8.5 so indicates a reduction of almost 60%.
This research can provide information for increasing the protection of the juniper forest and for counteracting the phenomenon of local extinctions caused by anthropic pressure and climate changes.
本研究旨在基于生物气候变量，利用最大熵模型（Maxent），对地中海和马卡罗尼西亚地区的[物种名称1]、[物种名称2]和[物种名称3]的过去、当前及未来分布进行建模。
地中海和马卡罗尼西亚。
柏科，刺柏属。
从全球生物多样性信息机构（GBIF.org）、文献、标本馆以及作者的实地记录中获取[物种复合体名称]的出现数据。生物气候变量取自世界气候数据库（WorldClim）和古气候数据（Paleoclim）。通过实施Maxent，将与物种分布地点相关的气候数据用于生态位预测，并使用ENMeval对模型进行评估。
在末次间冰期（LIG）、末次盛冰期（LGM）和全新世中期（MH），[物种名称1]的潜在生态位分别覆盖了当前潜在生态位的30%、10%和近100%。气候变暖可能使RCP2.6情景下的潜在生态位减少30%，在RCP8.5情景下减少90%。在末次间冰期和全新世中期，[物种名称2]的潜在生态位具有广泛的地中海周边及加那利群岛分布；在末次盛冰期其分布范围扩大，当时其分布区域比现在更多。在RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景下预测的气候变暖可能分别使当前潜在生态位减少30%和50%。该模型在末次间冰期和末次盛冰期未发现[物种名称3]的适宜生态位，但在全新世中期其潜在生态位比当前大30%。气候变暖情景RCP2.6表明潜在生态位减少30%，而RCP8.5表明减少近60%。
本研究可为加强刺柏林的保护以及应对人为压力和气候变化导致的局部灭绝现象提供信息。
