Research Institute of Subtropical Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Hangzhou, 311400, China.
Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Mar;29(15):21751-21768. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-17294-9. Epub 2021 Nov 12.
Sapindus mukorossi (S. mukorossi) is an important biological washing material and biomass energy tree species whose peel is rich in saponins, and its kernels have a high oil content. We used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict the suitable habitats of S. mukorossi globally, screen the dominant environmental factors affecting its distribution and analyse the changes in its suitable habitats under climate change from prehistory to the future, and the results will provide a scientific basis for germplasm resource collection, protection, introduction and cultivation. Twenty-two environmental variables and global distribution data for S. mukorossi were used to construct the species distribution model, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to verify the accuracy of the model. The dominant environmental factors were screened through the jackknife method, and then, the geographical information system (ArcGIS) was used to complete the grade of suitable habitat division and area calculation. The results showed that the MaxEnt model had an excellent predictive effect, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) value was as high as 0.969. The precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), temperature seasonality (Bio4) and isothermality (Bio3) were the dominant environmental factors that affected the distribution of S. mukorossi. The largest area of the world's suitable habitats occurred during the last interglacial (LIG) (772.69 × 10 km), and the area decreased sharply (614.46 × 10 km) during the last glacial maximum (LGM). The area of suitable habitat showed an increasing trend during the Mid-Holocene (MH) and currently, with areas of 631.06 × 10 km and 706.82 × 10 km, respectively. The area of suitable habitats for S. mukorossi globally was 718.35 × 10 km (SSP1-2.6), 636.85 × 10 km (SSP2-4.5), 657.64 × 10 km (SSP3-7.0) and 675.89 × 10 km (SSP5-8.5) under the four scenarios of the future climate. The area increased only in the SSP1 scenario. In summary, globally, the suitable area of S. mukorossi tended to migrate to higher latitudes and decrease in area with future climate change.
无患子（Sapindus mukorossi）是一种重要的生物洗涤材料和生物质能源树种，其果皮富含皂素，果仁含油率高。本研究采用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）预测无患子的全球适生区，筛选影响其分布的主导环境因素，并分析史前到未来气候变化下无患子适生区的变化，为无患子的种质资源收集、保护、引种和栽培提供科学依据。本研究以无患子全球分布数据和 22 个环境变量构建物种分布模型，利用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线验证模型的准确性。采用刀切法筛选主导环境因素，利用地理信息系统（ArcGIS）完成适生区等级划分和面积计算。结果表明，MaxEnt 模型具有良好的预测效果，ROC 曲线下面积（AUC）值高达 0.969。影响无患子分布的主导环境因素是最暖季度降水量（Bio18）、最冷月最低温度（Bio6）、温度季节性（Bio4）和均一性（Bio3）。末次间冰期（LIG）（772.69×10km）无患子全球适生区面积最大，末次冰期最大（LGM）急剧减少（614.46×10km）。中全新世（MH）和现在，无患子的适生区面积呈增加趋势，分别为 631.06×10km 和 706.82×10km。在未来气候的四个情景下（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0 和 SSP5-8.5），无患子全球适生区面积分别为 718.35×10km、636.85×10km、657.64×10km 和 675.89×10km。仅在 SSP1 情景下面积增加。总之，随着未来气候变化，无患子的适生区在全球范围内有向高纬度迁移的趋势，面积减少。
