Wah Win, Stirling Rob G, Ahern Susannah, Earnest Arul
Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia.
Department of Allergy, Immunology & Respiratory Medicine, Alfred Health, Melbourne 3004, Australia.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 May 11;18(10):5069. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18105069.
Predicting lung cancer cases at the small-area level is helpful to quantify the lung cancer burden for health planning purposes at the local geographic level. Using Victorian Cancer Registry (2001-2018) data, this study aims to forecast lung cancer counts at the local government area (LGA) level over the next ten years (2019-2028) in Victoria, Australia. We used the Age-Period-Cohort approach to estimate the annual age-specific incidence and utilised Bayesian spatio-temporal models that account for non-linear temporal trends and area-level risk factors. Compared to 2001, lung cancer incidence increased by 28.82% from 1353 to 1743 cases for men and 78.79% from 759 to 1357 cases for women in 2018. Lung cancer counts are expected to reach 2515 cases for men and 1909 cases for women in 2028, with a corresponding 44% and 41% increase. The majority of LGAs are projected to have an increasing trend for both men and women by 2028. Unexplained area-level spatial variation substantially reduced after adjusting for the elderly population in the model. Male and female lung cancer cases are projected to rise at the state level and in each LGA in the next ten years. Population growth and an ageing population largely contributed to this rise.
在小区域层面预测肺癌病例有助于在地方地理层面量化肺癌负担，以用于卫生规划目的。本研究利用维多利亚癌症登记处（2001 - 2018年）的数据，旨在预测澳大利亚维多利亚州未来十年（2019 - 2028年）地方政府区域（LGA）层面的肺癌病例数。我们采用年龄 - 时期 - 队列方法来估计年度特定年龄发病率，并运用贝叶斯时空模型，该模型考虑了非线性时间趋势和区域层面的风险因素。与2001年相比，2018年男性肺癌发病率从1353例增至1743例，增长了28.82%，女性从759例增至1357例，增长了78.79%。预计到2028年，男性肺癌病例数将达到该模型考虑了非线性时间趋势和区域层面的风险因素。与2001年相比，2018年男性肺癌发病率从1353例增至1743例，增长了28.82%，女性从759例增至1357例，增长了78.79%。预计到2028年，男性肺癌病例数将达到2515例，女性将达到1909例，相应增长44%和41%。预计到2028年，大多数地方政府区域的男性和女性肺癌病例数都将呈上升趋势。在模型中对老年人口进行调整后，无法解释的区域层面空间差异大幅减少。预计未来十年，该州及每个地方政府区域的男性和女性肺癌病例数都将上升。人口增长和人口老龄化在很大程度上导致了这一增长。
