Ramu M R Anantha
Fiscal Policy Institute, Government of Karnataka, Kengeri, Bengaluru, Karnataka 560060 India.
Indian Econ Rev. 2021;56(2):463-485. doi: 10.1007/s41775-021-00114-9. Epub 2021 May 28.
This paper attempts to empirically measure the public debt sustainability of Karnataka State in India for the period starting from 1991 to 2018. Three well-established methods are adopted to measure public debt sustainability, namely, indicator approach, time series approach and sensitivity analysis. The indicator approach shows that Karnataka's public debt satisfies Domer (1944) debt sustainability condition. Both the unit root test and fiscal policy response function under the time series approach revealed that public debt is sustainable and the response function is positive and significant in the post-fiscal reform period. Forward-looking sensitivity analysis has indicated public debt sustainability even after including growth rate and interest rate risks. Fiscal distress caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and corrective measures taken by Karnataka state is also discussed in the paper.
本文试图实证衡量印度卡纳塔克邦1991年至2018年期间的公共债务可持续性。采用了三种成熟的方法来衡量公共债务可持续性，即指标法、时间序列法和敏感性分析。指标法表明，卡纳塔克邦的公共债务符合多马（1944年）的债务可持续性条件。时间序列法下的单位根检验和财政政策反应函数均显示，公共债务是可持续的，且在财政改革后时期反应函数为正且显著。前瞻性敏感性分析表明，即使纳入增长率和利率风险，公共债务仍具有可持续性。本文还讨论了新冠疫情造成的财政困境以及卡纳塔克邦采取的纠正措施。
