Department of Economics, University of Malakand, Chakdara, Dir (Lower), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
Department of Commerce and Management Sciences, University of Malakand, Chakdara, Dir (Lower), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
PLoS One. 2022 Jun 6;17(6):e0269536. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0269536. eCollection 2022.
This study seeks answers to questions such as: what is fiscal adjustment? Which fiscal strategy will result in a reduction in public debt liabilities? In the pursuit of answers to these questions, the study has defined two objectives. Firstly, the fiscal adjustment episodes must be identified in order to detach the discretionary fiscal stance; secondly, the success of these adjustment episodes in reducing public debt liabilities must be assessed. As a result, attempts will be made to undertake analyses that would simplify the issues underlying Pakistan's practical policy options. A total of eleven adjustment episodes have been observed in a sample, ranging from 1976 to 2017, following Alesina and Ardagna's definition. The descriptive analysis reveals that five episodes succeeded in reducing the public debt, while six episodes failed to reduce the ratio. Out of the five successful episodes, four are found to be spending-based and one is tax-based. To quantify the success of fiscal adjustment, the empirical model has been calibrated on Leibrecht and Scharler's model and estimation is done via both the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Robust Least Squares (RLS) methods. The RLS method produces better outcomes than the OLS method. Under RLS, all variables are significant except GDP growth, whereas in the OLS model, the election year and regime shift, together with GDP growth, are statistically insignificant. The fiscal adjustment's composition reveals that spending-based consolidation boosts the chances of the fiscal adjustment's success. Fiscal authorities should, therefore, adopt spending-based austerity measures to ensure the sustainability of public finances and prevent the negative macroeconomic consequences of unsustainable public debt.
什么是财政调整？哪种财政策略会导致公共债务减少？为了回答这些问题，本研究设定了两个目标。首先，必须确定财政调整期，以便分离出可自由支配的财政立场；其次，必须评估这些调整期在减少公共债务方面的成功。因此，我们将尝试进行分析，以简化巴基斯坦实际政策选择所涉及的问题。在一个样本中观察到了 11 个调整期，时间范围从 1976 年到 2017 年，根据 Alesina 和 Ardagna 的定义。描述性分析表明，有 5 个调整期成功降低了公共债务，而 6 个调整期未能降低债务比率。在这 5 个成功的调整期中，有 4 个是基于支出的，1 个是基于税收的。为了量化财政调整的成功，我们根据 Leibrecht 和 Scharler 的模型校准了实证模型，并通过普通最小二乘法（OLS）和稳健最小二乘法（RLS）进行了估计。RLS 方法的结果优于 OLS 方法。在 RLS 下，除 GDP 增长外，所有变量均显著，而在 OLS 模型中，选举年和政权更迭以及 GDP 增长在统计上不显著。财政调整的构成表明，基于支出的巩固提高了财政调整成功的机会。因此，财政当局应采取基于支出的紧缩措施，以确保公共财政的可持续性，并防止不可持续的公共债务带来的负面宏观经济后果。
