School of Economics and Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, People's Republic of China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Oct;28(40):57260-57274. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-14366-8. Epub 2021 Jun 4.
Urban traffic congestion and haze pollution have become the main obstacles to the development of most cities in emerging economies. It is not clear how urban traffic development processes impact on PM concentration for the cities of emerging economies. Motivated by exploring the relationship between urban traffic development and PM pollution, 30 provinces in China (a representative emerging economy) from 2007 to 2016 were taken as examples, and threshold regression model and geographically temporally weighted regression model were used to explore the nonlinear relationship and their spatio-temporal heterogeneity. These empirical researches demonstrated that the impact of urban traffic development on PM pollution has a significant threshold effect. That is, when the road area crosses the threshold, it will significantly aggravate the regional PM pollution. Meanwhile, regional economic development also shows a significant threshold effect. Moreover, the relationship between urban traffic development and PM pollution in various Chinese provinces presents significant spatial heterogeneity. Specifically, the Chinese provinces are divided into four categories, and urban planning should be designed for different types for the sustainable development of the economy and environment. Our results not only contribute to advancing the existing literature, but also merit particular attention from urban planners in emerging economies.
城市交通拥堵和雾霾污染已成为新兴经济体中大多数城市发展的主要障碍。目前还不清楚城市交通发展过程对新兴经济体城市的 PM 浓度有何影响。为了探究城市交通发展与 PM 污染之间的关系，本研究以中国 2007 年至 2016 年的 30 个省份为例，采用门槛回归模型和时空加权回归模型，探讨了非线性关系及其时空异质性。这些实证研究表明，城市交通发展对 PM 污染的影响具有显著的门槛效应。也就是说，当道路面积超过门槛值时，会显著加剧区域 PM 污染。同时，区域经济发展也表现出显著的门槛效应。此外，中国各省份之间城市交通发展与 PM 污染的关系呈现出显著的空间异质性。具体来说，中国的省份被分为四类，城市规划应针对不同类型进行设计，以实现经济和环境的可持续发展。本研究结果不仅有助于推进现有文献，而且值得新兴经济体的城市规划者特别关注。
