Goujon Anne, Natale Fabrizio, Ghio Daniela, Conte Alessandra
European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy.
J Popul Res (Canberra). 2022;39(4):533-556. doi: 10.1007/s12546-021-09263-3. Epub 2021 May 29.
This article explores for a large number of countries in the European Union (plus the United Kingdom) the main demographic differentials in positive tested COVID-19 cases and excess mortality during the first wave in 2020, accounting for differences at territorial level, where population density and size play a main role in the diffusion and effects of the disease in terms of morbidity and mortality. This knowledge complements and refines the epidemiological information about the spread and impact of the virus. For this analysis, we rely on the descriptive exploration of (1) data from The European Surveillance System (TESSy) database developed at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) on the number of cases and fatality rates and (2) of weekly mortality data collected by Eurostat. The analysis at territorial level studies the changes in R0-the basic reproduction number-and median excess mortality, across territories with different levels of urbanization. The unique findings of this study encompassing most European Union Member States confirm and define the demographic and territorial differential impacts in terms of infections and fatalities during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020. The information is important for stakeholders at European Union, national and sub-national levels in charge of designing containment measures for COVID-19 and adaptation policies for the future by anticipating the rebound for certain segments of the population with differential medical and economic needs.
本文探讨了欧盟(加上英国)众多国家在2020年第一波疫情期间新冠病毒检测呈阳性病例和超额死亡率方面的主要人口统计学差异,同时考虑到地区层面的差异,在发病率和死亡率方面,人口密度和规模在疾病传播及影响中起着主要作用。这些知识补充并完善了有关病毒传播和影响的流行病学信息。对于此分析,我们依赖于对以下两方面的描述性探索:(1)欧洲疾病预防控制中心(ECDC)开发的欧洲监测系统(TESSy)数据库中关于病例数和死亡率的数据;(2)欧盟统计局收集的每周死亡率数据。地区层面的分析研究了不同城市化水平地区的基本繁殖数R0和超额死亡率中位数的变化。这项涵盖大多数欧盟成员国的研究的独特发现证实并界定了2020年第一波疫情期间在感染和死亡方面的人口统计学和地区差异影响。该信息对于欧盟、国家和地方各级负责设计新冠疫情防控措施以及为未来制定适应政策的利益相关者而言至关重要,因为这有助于他们预测具有不同医疗和经济需求的特定人群的反弹情况。