Gund Institute for Environment, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA.
Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA.
Nat Commun. 2021 Jun 10;12(1):3511. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-23905-3.
Addressing how ecosystem services (ES) are distributed among groups of people is critical for making conservation and environmental policy-making more equitable. Here, we evaluate the distribution and equity of changes in ES benefits across demographic and socioeconomic groups in the United States (US) between 2020 and 2100. Specifically, we use land cover and population projections to model potential shifts in the supply, demand, and benefits of the following ES: provision of clean air, protection against a vector-borne disease (West Nile virus), and crop pollination. Across the US, changes in ES benefits are unevenly distributed among socioeconomic and demographic groups and among rural and urban communities, but are relatively uniform across geographic regions. In general, non-white, lower-income, and urban populations disproportionately bear the burden of declines in ES benefits. This is largely driven by the conversion of forests and wetlands to cropland and urban land cover in counties where these populations are expected to grow. In these locations, targeted land use policy interventions are required to avoid exacerbating inequalities already present in the US.
解决生态系统服务（ES）在人群中的分配问题对于使保护和环境决策更加公平至关重要。在这里，我们评估了美国（US）在 2020 年至 2100 年期间，人口统计和社会经济群体中 ES 利益变化的分布和公平性。具体而言，我们使用土地覆盖和人口预测模型来模拟以下 ES 的供应、需求和利益的潜在变化：提供清洁空气、预防媒介传播疾病（西尼罗河病毒）和作物授粉。在美国，ES 利益的变化在社会经济和人口统计群体以及农村和城市社区之间分布不均，但在地理区域之间相对均匀。一般来说，非白色、低收入和城市人口不成比例地承担着 ES 利益下降的负担。这主要是由于预计这些人口增长的县的森林和湿地向农田和城市土地覆盖的转变所致。在这些地方，需要有针对性的土地利用政策干预措施，以避免加剧美国已经存在的不平等现象。
