Computational and Analytical Sciences, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK.
School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Berkshire, UK.
J R Soc Interface. 2021 Jun;18(179):20210250. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0250. Epub 2021 Jun 16.
Climate change effects on UK winter wheat grain yield are complex: warmer temperature, negative; greater carbon dioxide (CO) concentration, positive; but other environmental variables and their timing also affect yield. In the absence of long-term experiments where temperature and CO concentration were manipulated separately, we applied the crop simulation model Sirius with long-term daily meteorological data (1892-2016) for Rothamsted, Hertfordshire, UK (2007-2016 mean growing season temperature 1.03°C warmer than 1892-1991), and CO concentration over this period, to investigate the separate effects of historic CO and weather on simulated grain yield in three wheat cultivars of the modern era. We show a slight decline in simulated yield over the period 1892-2016 from the effect of weather (daily temperature, rainfall and sunshine hours) at fixed CO (294.50 ppm, 1892 reference value), but a maximum 9.4% increase when accounting for increasing atmospheric CO (from 294.50 to 404.21 ppm), differing slightly among cultivars. Notwithstanding considerable inter-annual variation, the slight yield decline at 294.50 ppm CO over this 125-year period from the historic weather simulations for Rothamsted agrees with the expected decline from temperature increase alone, but the positive yield trend with actual CO values does not match the recent stagnation in UK wheat yield.
温度升高，负面影响；二氧化碳（CO）浓度增加，正面影响；但其他环境变量及其时间也会影响产量。由于缺乏分别控制温度和 CO 浓度的长期实验，我们应用作物模拟模型 Sirius 并结合长期每日气象数据（1892-2016 年，罗瑟米尔施特德，英国赫特福德郡的生长季节平均温度比 1892-1991 年高 1.03°C）和这段时间的 CO 浓度，研究了历史 CO 和天气对三个现代小麦品种模拟谷物产量的单独影响。我们发现，在 1892-2016 年期间，由于 CO 固定（294.50 ppm，1892 年参考值）下天气（日温度、降雨量和日照小时数）的影响，模拟产量略有下降，但考虑到大气 CO 的增加（从 294.50 增加到 404.21 ppm），产量最多增加了 9.4%，不同品种之间略有差异。尽管存在很大的年际变化，但在这段 125 年期间，罗瑟米尔施特德的历史天气模拟中，在 294.50 ppm CO 下的产量略微下降，这与仅因温度升高而预期的下降相符，但实际 CO 值下的产量增长趋势与英国小麦产量的近期停滞不前并不相符。
