Zhang Na, Yao Feng Mei, Zhang Jia Hua
College of Earth Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2016 Apr 22;27(4):1152-1162. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201604.036.
This paper was aimed to assess the potential impacts of rising temperature and CO concentration on the production of different rice cultivars in the cold region of China, Heilongjiang Province. Total three representative rice varieties with different maturity types were selected to conduct the simulation experiments according to the required accumulated temperature. Daily weather data and open top chamber (OTC) test yield data for year 2013 were used to initialize CERES-Rice model parameters. CERES-Rice model was executed to simulate the influence of climate change on early-mature, mid-mature and late-mature rice production under fixed weather scenarios, which consisted of three CO concentrations (i.e. 390, 450 and 550 μmol·mol) and four temperature rise levels (i.e. 1, 2, 3 and 4 ℃). Results showed that with the increase in concentration of CO, the rice yield would increase. With the rise in temperature, early-mature rice yield would decline significantly. However, mid-mature and late-mature rice yield would increase at first and then gra-dually decline. Without considering the effect of CO fertilization, except that the medium and late varieties under 1 ℃ warming would slightly increase the yield by 3.1% and 0.27% respectively, yield under the other treatments would reduce. The most serious reduction occurred to early-mature rice, which decreased up to 57.7% when the temperature increased by 4 ℃, while mid-mature rice and late-mature rice yields decreased about 10%. Considering the effect of CO fertilization, mid-mature and late-mature rice yields would even increase by 0.75% and 3.2% at 450 μmol·mol CO under 2 ℃ warming, respectively. Mid-mature rice yield would still increase 4.5% under 3 ℃ warming and late-mature rice yield would also increase 0.39% under 4 ℃ warming at 550 μmol·mol CO. However, it was identified that early-mature rice yield would always sharply decrease with temperature increasing regardless of the effect of CO fertilization. Similarly, CO fertilization effects could improve rice yield to certain extent with temperature increasing. However, the diffe-rence among the varieties in response to CO fertilization effect was not significant. The contribution rate of CO fertilization effect on rice yield was less than 10%.
本文旨在评估气温上升和二氧化碳浓度升高对中国寒冷地区黑龙江省不同水稻品种产量的潜在影响。根据所需积温，选取了三种具有不同成熟类型的代表性水稻品种进行模拟试验。利用2013年的每日气象数据和开顶式气室（OTC）试验产量数据对CERES - 水稻模型参数进行初始化。在固定气象情景下，执行CERES - 水稻模型来模拟气候变化对早熟、中熟和晚熟水稻产量的影响，该气象情景包括三种二氧化碳浓度（即390、450和550 μmol·mol）和四个升温水平（即1、2、3和4℃）。结果表明，随着二氧化碳浓度的增加，水稻产量会增加。随着温度升高，早熟水稻产量将显著下降。然而，中熟和晚熟水稻产量起初会增加，随后逐渐下降。在不考虑二氧化碳施肥效应的情况下，除了1℃升温下中晚熟品种产量分别略有增加3.1%和0.27%外，其他处理下产量均会降低。减产最严重的是早熟水稻，温度升高4℃时减产高达57.7%，而中熟和晚熟水稻产量下降约10%。考虑二氧化碳施肥效应时，在2℃升温、450 μmol·mol二氧化碳浓度下，中熟和晚熟水稻产量分别甚至会增加0.75%和3.2%。在550 μmol·mol二氧化碳浓度下，3℃升温时中熟水稻产量仍会增加4.5%，4℃升温时晚熟水稻产量也会增加0.39%。然而，研究发现无论二氧化碳施肥效应如何，早熟水稻产量都会随着温度升高而急剧下降。同样，随着温度升高，二氧化碳施肥效应在一定程度上可以提高水稻产量。然而，不同品种对二氧化碳施肥效应的响应差异不显著。二氧化碳施肥效应对水稻产量的贡献率小于10%。
