Bellomo Katinka, Angeloni Michela, Corti Susanna, von Hardenberg Jost
National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), Turin, Italy.
Department of Physics and Astronomy, Alma Mater Studiorum - University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy.
Nat Commun. 2021 Jun 16;12(1):3659. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-24015-w.
In climate model simulations of future climate change, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is projected to decline. However, the impacts of this decline, relative to other changes, remain to be identified. Here we address this problem by analyzing 30 idealized abrupt-4xCO climate model simulations. We find that in models with larger AMOC decline, there is a minimum warming in the North Atlantic, a southward displacement of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, and a poleward shift of the mid-latitude jet. The changes in the models with smaller AMOC decline are drastically different: there is a relatively larger warming in the North Atlantic, the precipitation response exhibits a wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier pattern, and there are smaller displacements of the mid-latitude jet. Our study indicates that the AMOC is a major source of inter-model uncertainty, and continued observational efforts are needed to constrain the AMOC response in future climate change.
在未来气候变化的气候模型模拟中，预计大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）将会减弱。然而，相对于其他变化而言，这种减弱的影响仍有待确定。在此，我们通过分析30个理想化的4倍二氧化碳浓度突变气候模型模拟来解决这一问题。我们发现，在AMOC减弱幅度较大的模型中，北大西洋的升温幅度最小，热带辐合带向南移动，中纬度急流向极地移动。而AMOC减弱幅度较小的模型中的变化则截然不同：北大西洋的升温幅度相对较大，降水响应呈现出湿区更湿、干区更干的模式，中纬度急流的移动幅度较小。我们的研究表明，AMOC是模型间不确定性的一个主要来源，未来仍需要持续的观测工作来限制AMOC在未来气候变化中的响应。
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