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热盐环流,我们气候系统的致命弱点:人为排放的二氧化碳会打破当前的平衡吗?

Thermohaline circulation, the achilles heel of our climate system: will man-made CO2 upset the current balance?

作者信息

Broecker WS

机构信息

The author is at The Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.

出版信息

Science. 1997 Nov 28;278(5343):1582-8. doi: 10.1126/science.278.5343.1582.

Abstract

During the last glacial period, Earth's climate underwent frequent large and abrupt global changes. This behavior appears to reflect the ability of the ocean's thermohaline circulation to assume more than one mode of operation. The record in ancient sedimentary rocks suggests that similar abrupt changes plagued the Earth at other times. The trigger mechanism for these reorganizations may have been the antiphasing of polar insolation associated with orbital cycles. Were the ongoing increase in atmospheric CO2 levels to trigger another such reorganization, it would be bad news for a world striving to feed 11 to 16 billion people.

摘要

在上一个冰河时期,地球气候经历了频繁的大幅度全球突变。这种现象似乎反映了海洋热盐环流能够呈现不止一种运行模式。古代沉积岩中的记录表明,类似的突变在其他时期也曾困扰地球。这些重新组织的触发机制可能是与轨道周期相关的极地日照反相位。如果大气中二氧化碳水平的持续上升引发另一次这样的重新组织,对于一个努力养活110亿至160亿人口的世界来说,将是个坏消息。

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