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探索世界最大经济体经济增长的驱动因素。

Exploring the driving factors of economic growth in the world's largest economies.

作者信息

Rahman Mohammad Mafizur, Alam Khosrul

机构信息

School of Business, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Australia.

Department of Economics, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science and Technology University, Gopalganj, 8100, Bangladesh.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2021 May 24;7(5):e07109. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e07109. eCollection 2021 May.

Abstract

This study explores the main factors of economic growth in a panel of the world's 20 biggest economies considering the data period of 39 years (1980-2018). In particular, the roles of international trade, energy use, human capital, and foreign direct investment (FDI) are examined in addition to the roles of capital and labour. To estimate the results the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method of Pool Mean Group (PMG) estimator and heterogeneous panel causality test are used with due consideration of cross sectional dependence test, cointegration test and other necessary diagnostic tests. The obtained results ratify the cointegration among the variables used. Energy use, trade, capital, labour, human capital development and foreign direct investment have positive and significant impacts on the economic growth of these countries in the long run. In the short run energy use, trade and capital also have positive and significant effects, but human capital has negative effect on economic growth. A bidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and trade, capital, labour and human capital, and a unidirectional causal link from economic growth to energy use and foreign direct investment are also found. The obtained results are theoretically consistent, and therefore have important policy implications.

摘要

本研究在考虑39年(1980 - 2018年)数据期的情况下,对世界20个最大经济体的面板数据进行分析,探究经济增长的主要因素。具体而言,除了资本和劳动力的作用外,还考察了国际贸易、能源使用、人力资本以及外国直接投资(FDI)的作用。为了估计结果,使用了面板自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法中的均值组(PMG)估计器以及异质面板因果检验,并充分考虑了截面依赖性检验、协整检验和其他必要的诊断检验。所得结果证实了所使用变量之间的协整关系。从长期来看,能源使用、贸易、资本、劳动力、人力资本发展和外国直接投资对这些国家的经济增长具有积极且显著的影响。在短期内,能源使用、贸易和资本也具有积极且显著的影响,但人力资本对经济增长具有负面影响。研究还发现经济增长与贸易、资本、劳动力和人力资本之间存在双向因果关系,以及经济增长与能源使用和外国直接投资之间存在单向因果联系。所得结果在理论上是一致的,因此具有重要的政策意义。

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