Schmidt Emily, Dorosh Paul, Gilbert Rachel
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Washington District of Columbia USA.
Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy Tufts University Boston Massachusetts USA.
Agric Econ. 2021 May;52(3):391-406. doi: 10.1111/agec.12625. Epub 2021 May 6.
Concerns over the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have led to trade restrictions by major rice exporters, contributing to an average 25% increase in Thai and Vietnamese rice export prices between December 2019 and March-September 2020. This article assesses the consequences of these rice price increases in Papua New Guinea (PNG), where 99% of rice is imported. Utilizing data from a PNG 2018 rural household survey along with earlier national household survey data, we examine rice consumption patterns in PNG and estimate demand parameters for urban and rural households. Model simulations indicate that a 25% rise in the world price of rice would reduce total rice consumption in PNG by 14% and reduce rice consumption of the poor (bottom 40% of total household expenditure distribution) by 15%. Including the effects of a possible 12% decrease in household incomes because of the COVID-19 related economic slowdown, rice consumption of the urban and rural poor fall by 20% and 17%, respectively. Maintaining functioning domestic supply chains of key staple goods is critical to mitigating the effects of global rice price increases, allowing urban households to increase their consumption of locally produced staples.
对新冠疫情潜在影响的担忧导致主要大米出口国实施贸易限制，使得2019年12月至2020年3月至9月期间泰国和越南大米出口价格平均上涨了25%。本文评估了巴布亚新几内亚（PNG）大米价格上涨的后果，该国99%的大米依赖进口。利用PNG 2018年农村家庭调查数据以及早期的全国家庭调查数据，我们研究了PNG的大米消费模式，并估计了城乡家庭的需求参数。模型模拟表明，大米国际价格上涨25%将使PNG的大米总消费量减少14%，使贫困家庭（家庭总支出分布中处于最底层的40%）的大米消费量减少15%。若将因新冠疫情相关经济放缓导致家庭收入可能下降12%的影响考虑在内，城乡贫困家庭的大米消费量将分别下降20%和17%。维持关键主食的国内供应链正常运转对于减轻全球大米价格上涨的影响至关重要，这能让城市家庭增加对本地生产主食的消费。
