非洲新冠疫情爆发的地理趋势分析。

Geographical trend analysis of COVID-19 pandemic onset in Africa.

作者信息

Onafeso Olumide David, Onafeso Tolulope Esther, Olumuyiwa-Oluwabiyi Glory Tomi, Faniyi Michael Olawole, Olusola Adeyemi Oludapo, Dina Adeolu Odutayo, Hassan Adegbayi Mutiu, Folorunso Sakinat Oluwabukonla, Adelabu Samuel, Adagbasa Efosa

机构信息

Department of Geography, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria.

Department of Family Medicine, General Hospital, Lagos, Nigeria.

出版信息

Soc Sci Humanit Open. 2021;4(1):100137. doi: 10.1016/j.ssaho.2021.100137. Epub 2021 Mar 4.

Abstract

Little has been documented in literature concerning the manner of occurrence and spread of COVID-19 in Africa. Understanding the geographic nature of the corona virus pandemic may offer critical response signals for Africa. This paper employed analysis of variance (ANOVA) to show that significant variations exist among African countries', particularly total population as well as those using basic drinking water services, gross national income, expenditure on health, number of physicians and air transport passengers. Although we have only considered the number of confirmed corona virus infections noting that the fatality may be too early to discuss, we have relied on data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) to establish a significant association between international mobility based on average annual air passenger carried (r ​= ​0.6) which also successfully predicted (R 2 ​= ​0.501) the number of COVID-19 cases reported in each country along with the population density (R 2 ​= ​0.418). We also detected that COVID-19 cases report y geometrically increased daily x (R 2 ​= ​0.860) with a 2nd order polynomial equation in the form of y ​= ​0.3993 ​× ​2-8.7569 x and a clustered spatial pattern with a nearest neighbour ratio of 0.025 significant at 0.05 α-level. African countries have responded to the pandemic in different ways including partial lockdown, closure of borders and airports as well as providing test centres. We concluded that 40% of Africa are categorized as emerging hot spots while responses differ significantly across regions.

摘要

关于新冠病毒肺炎在非洲的发生和传播方式,文献记载甚少。了解冠状病毒大流行的地理特征可能为非洲提供关键的应对信号。本文采用方差分析表明,非洲国家之间存在显著差异,特别是总人口以及使用基本饮用水服务的人口、国民总收入、卫生支出、医生数量和航空运输乘客数量。虽然我们仅考虑了确诊的冠状病毒感染病例数,注意到目前讨论死亡率可能为时过早,但我们依据欧洲疾病预防控制中心(ECDC)的数据,确定了基于年均航空客运量的国际流动性之间存在显著关联(r = 0.6),这也成功预测了(R² = 0.501)每个国家报告的新冠病毒肺炎病例数以及人口密度(R² = 0.418)。我们还检测到,新冠病毒肺炎病例报告数y随时间x呈几何级数每日增加(R² = 0.860),其二次多项式方程形式为y = 0.3993×2 - 8.7569x,且具有聚集的空间模式,最近邻比率为0.025,在α = 0.05水平上具有显著性。非洲国家以不同方式应对这一疫情,包括部分封锁、关闭边境和机场以及设立检测中心。我们得出结论,40%的非洲地区被归类为新兴热点地区,且各地区的应对措施差异显著。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d66a/7931739/313ce2c073d2/gr1_lrg.jpg

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索