Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, US National Institutes of Health, Bethesda MD, USA.
Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, US National Institutes of Health, Bethesda MD, USA.
Lancet Digit Health. 2020 Apr;2(4):e201-e208. doi: 10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30026-1. Epub 2020 Feb 20.
As the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) progresses, epidemiological data are needed to guide situational awareness and intervention strategies. Here we describe efforts to compile and disseminate epidemiological information on COVID-19 from news media and social networks.
In this population-level observational study, we searched DXY.cn, a health-care-oriented social network that is currently streaming news reports on COVID-19 from local and national Chinese health agencies. We compiled a list of individual patients with COVID-19 and daily province-level case counts between Jan 13 and Jan 31, 2020, in China. We also compiled a list of internationally exported cases of COVID-19 from global news media sources (Kyodo News, The Straits Times, and CNN), national governments, and health authorities. We assessed trends in the epidemiology of COVID-19 and studied the outbreak progression across China, assessing delays between symptom onset, seeking care at a hospital or clinic, and reporting, before and after Jan 18, 2020, as awareness of the outbreak increased. All data were made publicly available in real time.
We collected data for 507 patients with COVID-19 reported between Jan 13 and Jan 31, 2020, including 364 from mainland China and 143 from outside of China. 281 (55%) patients were male and the median age was 46 years (IQR 35-60). Few patients (13 [3%]) were younger than 15 years and the age profile of Chinese patients adjusted for baseline demographics confirmed a deficit of infections among children. Across the analysed period, delays between symptom onset and seeking care at a hospital or clinic were longer in Hubei province than in other provinces in mainland China and internationally. In mainland China, these delays decreased from 5 days before Jan 18, 2020, to 2 days thereafter until Jan 31, 2020 (p=0·0009). Although our sample captures only 507 (5·2%) of 9826 patients with COVID-19 reported by official sources during the analysed period, our data align with an official report published by Chinese authorities on Jan 28, 2020.
News reports and social media can help reconstruct the progression of an outbreak and provide detailed patient-level data in the context of a health emergency. The availability of a central physician-oriented social network facilitated the compilation of publicly available COVID-19 data in China. As the outbreak progresses, social media and news reports will probably capture a diminishing fraction of COVID-19 cases globally due to reporting fatigue and overwhelmed health-care systems. In the early stages of an outbreak, availability of public datasets is important to encourage analytical efforts by independent teams and provide robust evidence to guide interventions.
Fogarty International Center, US National Institutes of Health.
随着 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情的爆发，需要流行病学数据来指导情况认知和干预策略。在此，我们描述了从新闻媒体和社交网络中编译和传播 COVID-19 流行病学信息的工作。
在这项人群水平的观察性研究中，我们搜索了丁香园（DXY.cn），这是一个面向医疗保健的社交网络，目前正在从中国当地和国家卫生机构直播有关 COVID-19 的新闻报道。我们编制了一份从 2020 年 1 月 13 日至 1 月 31 日在中国的 COVID-19 患者个体清单和每日省级病例数。我们还从全球新闻媒体（共同社、海峡时报和美国有线电视新闻网）、各国政府和卫生当局编译了 COVID-19 的国际输出病例清单。我们评估了 COVID-19 的流行病学趋势，并研究了中国各地疫情的发展情况，评估了在 2020 年 1 月 18 日之前和之后，症状出现、到医院或诊所就诊以及报告之间的延迟，因为对疫情的认识有所提高。所有数据均实时公开。
我们收集了 2020 年 1 月 13 日至 1 月 31 日期间报告的 507 例 COVID-19 患者的数据，其中 364 例来自中国大陆，143 例来自中国大陆以外地区。281 例（55%）患者为男性，中位年龄为 46 岁（IQR 35-60）。很少有患者（13 [3%]）年龄小于 15 岁，经基线人口统计学因素调整的中国患者年龄分布证实儿童感染人数不足。在分析期间，湖北省患者从症状出现到到医院或诊所就诊的时间长于中国大陆其他省份和国际上的时间。在中国，这些延迟从 2020 年 1 月 18 日之前的 5 天减少到此后的 2 天，直到 2020 年 1 月 31 日（p=0·0009）。尽管我们的样本仅捕获了在分析期间官方报告的 9826 例 COVID-19 患者中的 507 例（5.2%），但我们的数据与中国当局 2020 年 1 月 28 日发布的官方报告一致。
新闻报道和社交媒体可以帮助重建疫情的发展，并在卫生紧急情况下提供详细的患者水平数据。一个以医生为中心的中央社交网络的存在促进了 COVID-19 数据在中国的公开编译。随着疫情的发展，由于报告疲劳和不堪重负的医疗保健系统，社交媒体和新闻报道可能会在全球范围内捕捉到 COVID-19 病例的比例下降。在疫情的早期阶段，公共数据集的可用性对于鼓励独立团队进行分析工作和提供强有力的证据来指导干预措施非常重要。
美国国立卫生研究院福格蒂国际中心。
