Department of Civil, Environmental, Architectural Engineering and Mathematics (DICATAM), University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy.
Department of Civil, Environmental, Architectural Engineering and Mathematics (DICATAM), University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy.
Accid Anal Prev. 2021 Sep;159:106258. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2021.106258. Epub 2021 Jun 26.
Greater attention to bus safety can lead to relevant benefits for public transport companies in terms of higher service performance, reliability, and lower insurance costs. Therefore, measuring the crash risk on bus routes provides an opportunity to improve the safety performance of transit operators. Previous research has explored the effects of many factors regarding the frequency and severity of bus crashes, whereas only a handful of studies have defined some crash risk indexes. Conversely, to the best of our knowledge, almost no research has been done regarding the crash risk in the bus transit network that integrates frequency, severity, and the exposure factors. This paper proposes a new framework to assess the crash risk for each transit bus route by the integration of safety factors, prediction models and risk methods. More precisely, this framework identifies several safety factors and specifies the risk components in terms of frequency, severity and exposure factors that may affect bus crashes. Then, it models their relationships to build a bus crash risk function. Lastly, according to the values returned by the previous function, the crash risk for each route is computed and a safety performance ranking for each route is provided. The feasibility of this framework is demonstrated in a real case study by using bus crash data provided by a mid-sized Italian bus operator. The findings show that transit managers could implement this framework in a road traffic safety management system to evaluate the risk of crashes on routes, monitor the safety performance of each route and qualify each route according to recent safety norms.
更加关注公交车安全可以为公共交通公司带来相关的利益，包括更高的服务性能、可靠性和更低的保险成本。因此，衡量公交线路的碰撞风险为改善运输运营商的安全性能提供了机会。之前的研究已经探讨了许多与公交车碰撞频率和严重程度有关的因素的影响，而只有少数研究定义了一些碰撞风险指标。相反，据我们所知，几乎没有研究涉及到整合频率、严重程度和暴露因素的公交车交通网络中的碰撞风险。本文提出了一个新的框架，通过整合安全因素、预测模型和风险方法来评估每条公交线路的碰撞风险。更确切地说，该框架确定了几个安全因素，并指定了可能影响公交车碰撞的风险组件，包括频率、严重程度和暴露因素。然后，对它们的关系进行建模，以构建公交车碰撞风险函数。最后，根据前面函数返回的值，计算每条路线的碰撞风险，并为每条路线提供安全性能排名。通过使用一家意大利中型公共汽车运营商提供的公共汽车碰撞数据，在实际案例研究中证明了该框架的可行性。研究结果表明，交通管理者可以在道路交通安全管理系统中实施该框架，以评估路线上的碰撞风险，监测每条路线的安全性能，并根据最新的安全规范对每条路线进行评估。
