Dipartimento di Scienze Della Terra, Università di Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
CIRSEC-Centro Interdipartimentale di Ricerca per lo Studio degli Effetti del Cambiamento climatico dell'Università di Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
Nat Commun. 2021 Jun 29;12(1):4013. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-24250-1.
Future warming in the Mediterranean is expected to significantly exceed global values with unpredictable implications on the sea-level rise rates in the coming decades. Here, we apply an empirical-Bayesian spatio-temporal statistical model to a dataset of 401 sea-level index points from the central and western Mediterranean and reconstruct rates of sea-level change for the past 10,000 years. We demonstrate that the mean rates of Mediterranean industrial-era sea-level rise have been significantly faster than any other period since ~4000 years ago. We further highlight a previously unrecognized variability in Mediterranean sea-level change rates. In the Common Era, this variability correlates with the occurrence of major regional-scale cooling/warming episodes. Our data show a sea-level stabilization during the Late Antique Little Ice Age cold event, which interrupted a general rising trend of ~0.45 mm a that characterized the warming episodes of the Common Era. By contrast, the Little Ice Age cold event had only minor regional effects on Mediterranean sea-level change rates.
未来地中海的变暖预计将显著超过全球水平，这对未来几十年海平面上升率将产生不可预测的影响。在这里，我们应用经验贝叶斯时空统计模型对来自地中海中部和西部的 401 个海平面指数点的数据集进行了分析，并重建了过去 10000 年的海平面变化率。我们证明，地中海工业时代海平面上升的平均速度明显快于 4000 年前的任何时期。我们进一步强调了地中海海平面变化率以前未被认识到的可变性。在公元时期，这种可变性与主要区域规模的降温/升温事件的发生相关。我们的数据显示，在晚期古代小冰期冷事件期间，海平面稳定下来，中断了一个约为 0.45 毫米/年的普遍上升趋势，这一趋势是公元时期变暖事件的特征。相比之下，小冰期冷事件对地中海海平面变化率的区域影响较小。
