Spatiotemporal distribution and temporal trends of brucellosis and tuberculosis in water buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) in Brazil.

The buffalo herds in Brazil have been an alternative for increasing the economy in different biomes. For this reason, knowledge of the spatial distribution of diseases of mandatory notification in buffalo herds, such as brucellosis and tuberculosis, is essential to guarantee the quality of exported animal products, as well as assist in strategies of national control and eradication programs. In the present study, we aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution and temporal trends of brucellosis and tuberculosis in buffalo in Brazilian states between 2012-2019. During this period, 474 cases of brucellosis and 604 cases of tuberculosis were observed in buffalo in Brazil, with no significant differences between the total number of cases and incidence risk. The spatial distribution for the states was mostly heterogeneous, showing similarities of occurrences for both diseases in the south, north, and the states of Minas Gerais and Pernambuco. In the eight years evaluated, tuberculosis showed cyclical variation every 1-2 years; however, for brucellosis, there was a cyclical trend only between 2012-2015, with a significant decrease until 2018. Among Brazilian states, Pará had greater disease case numbers, with 34 % for brucellosis and 40.6 % for tuberculosis. Temporal trend analysis showed an increase for Pernambuco (annual percentage change [APC]: 21.0 [CI = 20.3; 21.8]), Paraná (APC: 27.1 [CI = 5.6; 53.0]), and Santa Catarina (APC: 10.4 [CI = 0.8; 21.0]) for brucellosis, and for tuberculosis, only for Santa Catarina state (APC: 24.1 [CI = 15.5; 33.3]). Spatiotemporally, there were four high-risk brucellosis clusters with a primary cluster, cluster A (relative risk [RRs] = 53.42, P < 0.001), involving the state of Amazonas between 2014-2015. For tuberculosis, there were three states of high risk, with a primary cluster, cluster E (RRs = 28.18, P < 0.001), involving the states of Pará, Roraima, Amazonas, Rondônia, and Acre in 2014. In conclusion, brucellosis and tuberculosis in buffalo in Brazil are heterogeneously distributed, with well-defined regions of high historical risk of infection. Among these regions, the states of Amazonas, Pará, Amapá, and Minas Gerais stand out due to the higher risk of infection for both brucellosis and tuberculosis, alerting Brazilian authorities to the need for disease control actions.