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长江流域水-能源-粮食共生协调的两步法测度及关键影响因素识别

Two-Step Measurement of Water-Energy-Food Symbiotic Coordination and Identification of Key Influencing Factors in the Yangtze River Basin.

作者信息

Chen Weizhong, Chen Yan

机构信息

College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China.

Research Institute of Ecological Civilization Construction and Forestry Development with Chinese Characteristics, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China.

出版信息

Entropy (Basel). 2021 Jun 23;23(7):798. doi: 10.3390/e23070798.

Abstract

With the intensification of people's production and life behaviors, the systemic risks of water, energy and food in the Yangtze River Basin have become increasingly prominent, which has become a bottleneck for sustainable development of social, economic and ecological in the basin. Therefore, studying the symbiotic coordination between water, energy and food is of great significance to promoting regional sustainable development. First, from the perspective of water-energy-food symbiosis, with the water-energy-food ecosystem conceptual model as the nexus, the two-step measurement model of the symbiotic index and the symbiotic level index is used to study the water-energy-food symbiosis of the Yangtze River. Then, we use the BP-DEMATEL-GTCW model to identify the key influencing factors that affect the symbiotic security of the water-energy-food ecosystem. In this research, it is found that the average value of the symbiotic degree of the water-energy-food ecosystem of the 11 provinces or municipalities in the Yangtze River Basin only reached the risk grade. It can also be seen from the identification results of key influencing factors that energy microsystem-related indicators have a greater impact on the symbiotic development of the entire WEF ecosystem. Therefore, special attention needs to be paid to increasing energy sources and reducing expenditure. Relevant departments need to effectively develop primary energy production and expand energy-saving investment through multiple channels to expand energy self-sufficiency and ultimately promote the coordinated and effective development of water, energy and food in the Yangtze River Basin.

摘要

随着人们生产生活行为的加剧,长江流域水、能源和粮食的系统性风险日益突出,已成为流域社会、经济和生态可持续发展的瓶颈。因此,研究水、能源和粮食之间的共生协调关系对促进区域可持续发展具有重要意义。首先,从水-能源-粮食共生的角度出发,以水-能源-粮食生态系统概念模型为纽带,运用共生指数和共生水平指数的两步测量模型研究长江的水-能源-粮食共生关系。然后,利用BP-DEMATEL-GTCW模型识别影响水-能源-粮食生态系统共生安全的关键影响因素。在本研究中发现,长江流域11个省或直辖市的水-能源-粮食生态系统共生度平均值仅达到风险等级。从关键影响因素的识别结果也可以看出,与能源微观系统相关的指标对整个水-能源-粮食生态系统的共生发展影响较大。因此,需要特别注意增加能源供应并减少消耗。相关部门需要通过多种渠道有效发展一次能源生产,扩大节能投资,以扩大能源自给自足能力,最终促进长江流域水、能源和粮食的协调有效发展。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f92b/8303784/c0cf354d04db/entropy-23-00798-g001.jpg

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