Niu Puchun, Schwarm Angela, Bonesmo Helge, Kidane Alemayehu, Aspeholen Åby Bente, Storlien Tonje Marie, Kreuzer Michael, Alvarez Clementina, Sommerseth Jon Kristian, Prestløkken Egil
Department of Animal and Aquacultural Sciences, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, 1432 Ås, Norway.
Norwegian Institute for Bioeconomy (NIBIO), 7031 Trondheim, Norway.
Animals (Basel). 2021 Jun 25;11(7):1891. doi: 10.3390/ani11071891.
The aim of this study was to develop a basic model to predict enteric methane emission from dairy cows and to update operational calculations for the national inventory in Norway. Development of basic models utilized information that is available only from feeding experiments. Basic models were developed using a database with 63 treatment means from 19 studies and were evaluated against an external database ( = 36, from 10 studies) along with other extant models. In total, the basic model database included 99 treatment means from 29 studies with records for enteric CH production (MJ/day), dry matter intake (DMI) and dietary nutrient composition. When evaluated by low root mean square prediction errors and high concordance correlation coefficients, the developed basic models that included DMI, dietary concentrations of fatty acids and neutral detergent fiber performed slightly better in predicting CH emissions than extant models. In order to propose country-specific values for the CH conversion factor (% of gross energy intake partitioned into CH) and thus to be able to carry out the national inventory for Norway, the existing operational model was updated for the prediction of over a wide range of feeding situations. A simulated operational database containing CH production (predicted by the basic model), feed intake and composition, and gross energy intake (GEI), in addition to the predictor variables energy corrected milk yield and dietary concentrate share were used to develop an operational model. Input values of were updated based on the results from the basic models. The predicted ranged from 6.22 to 6.72%. In conclusion, the prediction accuracy of CH production from dairy cows was improved with the help of newly published data, which enabled an update of the operational model for calculating the national inventory of CH in Norway.
本研究的目的是开发一个基础模型，以预测奶牛的肠道甲烷排放量，并更新挪威国家清单的运算。基础模型的开发利用了仅从饲养实验中获得的信息。利用一个包含来自19项研究的63个处理均值的数据库开发基础模型，并与一个外部数据库（来自10项研究，共36个）以及其他现有模型进行对比评估。基础模型数据库总共包含来自29项研究的99个处理均值，记录了肠道CH4产生量（兆焦/天）、干物质摄入量（DMI）和日粮营养成分。当通过低均方根预测误差和高一致性相关系数进行评估时，所开发的包含DMI、脂肪酸日粮浓度和中性洗涤纤维的基础模型在预测CH4排放方面比现有模型表现稍好。为了提出特定国家的CH4转换因子值（分配到CH4中的总能摄入量的百分比），从而能够进行挪威的国家清单核算，对现有的运算模型进行了更新，以预测广泛饲养情况下的CH4排放。除了预测变量能量校正奶产量和日粮精料比例外，一个包含CH4产生量（由基础模型预测）、采食量和组成、CH4排放以及总能摄入量（GEI）的模拟运算数据库被用于开发一个运算模型。基于基础模型的结果更新了CH4的输入值。预测的CH4转换因子范围为6.22%至6.72%。总之，借助新发布的数据提高了奶牛CH4产生量的预测准确性，这使得能够更新用于计算挪威CH4国家清单的运算模型。
