Wang Zi-Yang, Shi Pei-Ji, Zhang Xue-Bin, Wang Ying-Shu, Xie Xiao-Yi
College of Geographic and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China.
Gansu Engineering Research Center of Land Utilization and Comprehension Consolidation, Lanzhou 730070, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2021 Jun;32(6):2169-2179. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202106.014.
Using the four periods of land use data and socio-economic statistics of Lanzhou City in 1995, 2005, 2015 and 2018, we examined the evolution characteristics and driving forces of urban land use in Lanzhou, with expansion intensity index, Logistic regression, and principal component analysis method. Based on the multi-agent model, the expansion of urban land use in Lanzhou under multiple scenarios in 2025 was simulated using Netlogo software. The results showed that the intensity and scale of urban land expansion in Lanzhou City from 1995 to 2018 showed an increasing trend, with a total of 307 km of cultivated land and water area. The expansion of urban land in Lanzhou City was significantly related to regional GDP, social fixed asset investment, population density, population, policy, and terrain. The multi-agent model on the Netlogo software could simulate the expansion trend of urban land in Lanzhou, which provided a reliable simulation method for the expansion of valley-type cities. From 2020 to 2025, urban land use under the comprehensive development scenario, natural expansion development scenario, ecological and farmland protection development scenario all showed an increasing trend. The scale of expansion would range between 42.6-134.3 km. The expansion mode would mainly be infilled expansion. Our results could provide decision support for the land space planning and ecological environment layout optimization for Lanzhou City.
利用兰州市1995年、2005年、2015年和2018年四个时期的土地利用数据及社会经济统计数据，运用扩展强度指数、逻辑回归和主成分分析方法，研究了兰州市城市土地利用的演变特征及驱动力。基于多智能体模型，利用Netlogo软件模拟了兰州市2025年多种情景下城市土地利用的扩张情况。结果表明，1995—2018年兰州市城市土地扩张强度和规模呈增长趋势，共占用耕地和水域307 km。兰州市城市土地扩张与区域GDP、社会固定资产投资、人口密度、人口、政策及地形显著相关。Netlogo软件上的多智能体模型能够模拟兰州市城市土地扩张趋势，为河谷型城市扩张提供了可靠的模拟方法。2020—2025年，综合发展情景、自然扩张发展情景、生态与农田保护发展情景下的城市土地利用均呈增长趋势，扩张规模在42.6—134.3 km，扩张方式主要为填充式扩张。研究结果可为兰州市土地空间规划及生态环境布局优化提供决策支持。
