新冠疫情是否在政治上“杀死”了特朗普？疫情与2020年总统大选投票情况
Did Covid-19 Kill Trump Politically? The Pandemic and Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election.
作者信息
Clarke Harold, Stewart Marianne C, Ho Karl
机构信息
University of Texas at Dallas.
出版信息
Soc Sci Q. 2021 Sep;102(5):2194-2209. doi: 10.1111/ssqu.12992. Epub 2021 May 25.
OBJECTIVE
This article investigates the impact of public reactions to the Covid-19 panemic on voting for former President Donald Trump in the 2020 American presidential election.
METHODS
The impact of the pandemic on voting is assessed by multivariate statistical analyses of representative national survey data gathered before and after the 2020 presidential election.
RESULTS
Analyses show that voters reacted very negatively to Trump's handling of the pandemic. Controlling for several other relevant factors, these reactions affected voting for Trump and exerted a significant impact on the election outcome.
CONCLUSION
Before the onset of Covid-19 Trump had a very narrow path to victory in 2020, and the pandemic did much to ensure his defeat.
目的
本文研究公众对新冠疫情的反应对2020年美国总统大选中前总统唐纳德·特朗普投票情况的影响。
方法
通过对2020年总统大选前后收集的具有代表性的全国调查数据进行多变量统计分析，评估疫情对投票的影响。
结果
分析表明，选民对特朗普应对疫情的方式反应非常负面。在控制了其他几个相关因素后，这些反应影响了对特朗普的投票，并对选举结果产生了重大影响。
结论
在新冠疫情爆发之前，特朗普在2020年的胜利之路非常狭窄，而疫情在很大程度上确保了他的失败。
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