Enns Peter K, Jardina Ashley
Public Opin Q. 2021 Oct 1;85(2):539-570. doi: 10.1093/poq/nfab040. eCollection 2021 Summer.
Some scholars argue that Donald Trump's electoral college victory in 2016 was predicated on his ability to attract racially hostile white voters. Others argue that the increased relationship between whites' racial attitudes and presidential vote choice in 2016 was because racial attitudes and partisanship had become even more aligned following the presidency of Barack Obama. Building on research that shows voters tend to update their policy positions to align with their preferred candidates, we propose a third mechanism that helps account for the strong relationship between whites' racial attitudes and vote choice in 2016. We hypothesize that over the course of the presidential campaign, many whites shifted their survey responses on questions related to race and immigration to align with their support for Trump or Clinton. To test this argument, we use a unique panel dataset from surveys conducted by YouGov of more than 5,000 respondents interviewed at multiple points during the 2016 presidential election campaign. We find that the strong link between white attitudes toward Black Americans and Trump support observed in prior studies is likely due as much to white Trump supporters updating their survey responses to report opinions more consistent with Trump's, as it is to Trump drawing support from more racially antagonistic white voters. Similar results emerge with respect to whites' immigration opinions. These findings complicate our understanding of the 2016 election by offering direct evidence that Trump's campaign benefited from and catalyzed racial divisions. The results also hold implications for how we study election and campaign effects and the stability of race and immigration attitudes.
一些学者认为，唐纳德·特朗普在2016年赢得选举团胜利是基于他吸引怀有种族敌意的白人选民的能力。另一些人则认为，2016年白人选民的种族态度与总统选举投票选择之间的关联增强，是因为在巴拉克·奥巴马担任总统之后，种族态度和党派立场变得更加一致。基于表明选民倾向于更新其政策立场以与他们偏好的候选人保持一致的研究，我们提出了第三种机制，有助于解释2016年白人选民的种族态度与投票选择之间的紧密关系。我们假设，在总统竞选过程中，许多白人在与种族和移民相关问题上改变了他们的调查回答，以与他们对特朗普或克林顿的支持保持一致。为了验证这一观点，我们使用了一个独特的面板数据集，该数据集来自舆观调查公司在2016年总统选举竞选期间对5000多名受访者进行的多次调查。我们发现，先前研究中观察到的白人对非裔美国人的态度与对特朗普的支持之间的紧密联系，很可能同样是由于支持特朗普的白人更新了他们的调查回答，以报告与特朗普观点更一致的意见，也由于特朗普从更多怀有种族敌意的白人选民那里获得了支持。在白人的移民观点方面也出现了类似的结果。这些发现为我们对2016年选举的理解带来了复杂性，因为它们提供了直接证据，表明特朗普的竞选活动受益于并催化了种族分裂。这些结果对于我们如何研究选举和竞选活动的影响以及种族和移民态度的稳定性也具有启示意义。
