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[与新冠病毒传播至巴西伯南布哥州内陆相关的时空因素]

[Spatial and temporal aspects and factors associated with the spread of Covid-19 to the interior of the State of Pernambuco, Brazil].

作者信息

Quinino Louisiana Regadas de Macedo, Vasconcellos Flávia Helena Manhães, Diniz Isabel Soares, Aguiar Lucilene Rafael, Ramos Yasmim Talita de Moraes, Bastiani Fernanda De

机构信息

Núcleo de Saúde Coletiva, Instituto Aggeu Magalhães, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz). Av. Prof. Moraes Rego s/n, Cidade Universitária. 50670-420 Recife PE Brasil.

Departamento de Engenharia Cartográfica, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE). Recife PE Brasil.

出版信息

Cien Saude Colet. 2021 Jun;26(6):2171-2182. doi: 10.1590/1413-81232021266.00642021. Epub 2021 Mar 7.

Abstract

This study involved an ecological study between March and June 2020 consisting of a spatial and temporal analysis of the spread of Covid-19 to the interior of Pernambuco and related socioeconomic factors. Maps were generated from the incidence coefficient by municipality of residence to determine the spatial dynamics of Covid-19. The correlation between socioeconomic indicators and the coefficient in the metropolitan regions of Recife (MRR) and inland regions was studied. This coefficient was levelled, and the global Moran test was applied. The first cases were recorded in and around Recife. The spread of the virus took place in neighboring municipalities and in those served by major highways. The highest incidence in MRR (640.22/100,000 inhabitants) was correlated to larger population and demographic density and lower rate of urbanization and IDH-M. Inland, the incidence (361.29/100,000 inhabitants) was correlated with a larger population, demographic density and urbanization rate, and a smaller area (p<0.05). The areas of greatest risk were concentrated in MRR, but the interior showed areas of transition, indicating a tendency to spread (p<0.05). Being aware of the spatial distribution pattern of Covid-19, combined with the associated factors, may contribute to greater effectiveness of control actions.

摘要

本研究为一项生态研究,于2020年3月至6月开展,内容包括对新冠病毒在伯南布哥州内陆地区传播情况及相关社会经济因素进行时空分析。通过居住地所在市的发病率系数生成地图,以确定新冠病毒的空间动态。研究了累西腓大都市区(MRR)和内陆地区社会经济指标与该系数之间的相关性。对该系数进行了标准化处理,并应用了全局莫兰检验。首批病例记录于累西腓及其周边地区。病毒传播发生在邻近城市以及主要高速公路沿线的城市。MRR的发病率最高(640.22/10万居民),与人口较多、人口密度较大、城市化率较低以及人类发展指数(IDH-M)较低相关。在内陆地区,发病率(361.29/10万居民)与人口较多、人口密度、城市化率以及面积较小相关(p<0.05)。风险最高的地区集中在MRR,但内陆地区显示出过渡区域,表明有传播趋势(p<0.05)。了解新冠病毒的空间分布模式以及相关因素,可能有助于提高防控行动的有效性。

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